Tuesday, May 27, 2008

TENURED Liars

An observation, a Statement or an insult?

In the US who gets appointed to steer the economic affairs of the country?
Who gets the following mandate?: "To promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates"

There is a team out there right now holding court:
THEIR SCORE?
1) Maximum Employment? Doing still pretty good but heading for a cliff
2) Stable prices? You HAVE to be kidding me...
3) Moderate long-term interest rates? BIGGEST set of lies in here. People go listen to some snake oil salesman with doctored statistics. Amazing anybody on the planet wants to hold toxic US bonds. I STILL call for 5% on the US 10yr but hurry up because soon I WANT 7%

Bill Gross headline " Global economy deals with 7% inflation" yet he bets $130BB on GVMT backed mortgages securities , a brave soul this early!

In the Meantime
Please visit this site http://mwhodges.home.att.net/inflation.htm
to get a better sense on how inflation is creating this incredible background for all.

FED WATCH
What makes no sense to me is the policy of the FED to maintain the open window policy when clearly banks have no intention of putting this cheap money to work in areas that may do good... Infrastructure, education, non-government sponsored eco-friendly high tech... Instead it will go into carry trades speculating on the reversal of fortunes of smaller countries and even the demise of their own competitors (David Einhorn is at bat, Lehman is the ball and Bernanke is the pitcher)


The EUROPEANS and the CHINESE are DEADLY afraid of inflation.

The current FED policy is wrong wrong wrong! Keep it up and Vockler is coming back!BEN using a printing press puts the US in a dangerous position and has put it in direct conflict with its major trading partners. BEN you are heading for a run on US Treasuries as the pied piper. I see where you have been but I KNOW where the rats are having their next dinner. ECB and China will continue and MAYBE accelerate credit restriction to manage commodity speculation and unless the FED reverses COURSE NOW, I predict a pretty ugly fall in the credit markets.



LETS FACE IT: Everybody knows that the American people and ALL OF ITS INSTITUTIONS have an addiction to credit. SO FORCE THEM TO CHANGE , you don't give more CRACK to an addict entering rehab, do you?
REMEDIES
A) REVAMP inflation numbers to TRULY reflect "Causation"
B) PUT a DEADLINE on free money... Wall Street doesn't need 500K financial workers anyway ( sorry people) but make it leaner and smarter so more firms need to go bust
C) ANY FIRM that gets access to easy money CANNOT pay its top CEO $100MM Pay packages

in the MEANTIME: Hell has no furry like Meredith Whitney so she will spin her web on consumer credit card losses. It will be nasty for the summer if she is right as a new law takes effect in AUGUST...

IN CONCLUSION
Unless the FED changes its ways, I predict they are climbing at an ever increase rate of speed and by the FALL they are going to go over a cliff with no more goodwill bought parachutes... When people talk about V, W or L shape recession, I prefer to use the \ or an IMPACTED I ...


TRADING
This week In Canada, I am short XEG and XGD, US still holding SKF as I do not believe that the current rally is sustainable.

The Swiss Franc is a currency of interest to the bureau ( Just haven't figured out how to play it)

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