Monday, January 26, 2009

7-10, 20 and 30 yr Treasuries: Short them ALL!!!!!!!!

Now that Gold has gone from $730 to over $900 and a drop of the Canadian dollar, our Canadian investors have had a stellar 60 days.
What can we expect for 2009?
THEME 1
Geithner will be to Obama what Rumsfeld was to Bush.
Tim, you are not the man of the hour. The idea of spending recklessly and destroying the purchasing power of countless baby boomers coming into their retirement is dumb. Poking the eye of the Chinese central bankers is even dumber than trying to put the moves on your future mother in law in front of the whole family.
BUY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN: PST TBT ( double short bond ETFs)... courtesy of the Obama administration... I would buy foreign ETF short bonds but they are not marketing on NYSE...
Germany has the most debt maturing in 2009 and the rise in yields ofBunds are already indicators of the next Tsunami.Including financial debt, Germany has the most bonds maturing between 2009 and 2011, with 40 per cent of the total share. Other countries with big exposures in descending order are Sweden, Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK.Together, these countries account for about 85% of the total financial exposure in Europe.

THEME 2
Gold is moving down to our second long pick BEHIND oil...
As there are much fewer players left standing in the financial arena, some commodities will not suffer immense gyrations of the old Hedge funds "follow the madness of crowds" mentality. WE have been accumulating our darlings DNR, SU & PGF. No small caps! Pick some FCX also as this one is way beyond a normal correction
THEME 3
Top 2 players with clean balance sheets and NO debt will be the darlings of the markets as they allow number one , highly leveraged companies to default on exorbitant debt refinancing.A large chunk of the debt due over the next few years is concentrated in 2009, with $800bn maturing in that year alone, fuelled principally by the financial sector. In 2010 and 2011, total maturities taper off at $633bn and $510bn respectively.

Good trading to you all!