Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Say it ain't so JOE

"Say it ain't so,jo please, say it ain't so
thats not what I want to hear Joe
ain't I got a right to know
say it ain't so, jo please, say it ain't so
i'm sure they're telling us lies jo
please tell us it ain't so"
Murray Head


The Empire survey that came out this morning and was all rosy climbing 23 points to 0.6. I doubt the May report will be so rosy.

But the real shocker of the day.

"SAN FRANCISCO (AP)--Newly released data show the median price of southern California homes plunged 24% during March in the latest sign of the real estate market's deepening distress.
A report released Tuesday by DataQuick Information Services says the slump has dragged down the median price of homes in a six-county area to their lowest levels in nearly four years."

I am still short SKF and adding to my Pengrowth position.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Ben on Capitol hill...

Well you got to give to Ben, the man knows how to Call in favors!

Anecdotal Evidence
- Same day settlements on the UBS trades ( no shorts possible), surprise!
- The Dollar called the "New" Yen by Jubak
- Fed opens toxic waste dump for MBIA loss provisions ( stock rallyes 90% in week) thank you US taxpayers...


You got to love those questions Ben fielded this morning:
Paraphrasing "What do you see the role of the Fed vs. Hedge funds attacking the likes of Iceland and the run on Bear Stearns?"
His answers "monitor and blah blah blah..."

Ben: "The issue is the use of leverage of 30:1 by anybody interested in profits not the welfare of sovereign states or too big to fail institutions..."

as For Iceland and Bear Stearns I repeat: " Stupidity and bad risk assessment/management should be cured by failure and not by bailouts. Clean the gene pool.

Amazing announcement:
Ben says Fed used Blackrock to give them opinion on the assets that were taken in by the Fed in the Bear deal... so now collateral is now valued by a hedge fund...
I cannot believe this!

Meantime here is my series of 6 stocks which if looked together will give you a good pulse of real estate gyrations and FED action
SME, FRE, FNM, MBI, LVS, FIG ... I have not included builders as I don't trust their balance sheets and I think they are pretty much dead money for a LONG while!


BEN today at committee hearing: HOUSING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I won't trouble you with German Banks, Spain, Iceland and YOUR bag of groceries!

PS. Lou Dobbs piece is still on hold as I need a particular happy day to dare watch his show.

P.