Monday, July 13, 2009

You know you are in trouble when....

Good morning to all on this Monday July 13th 2009!
This week is banking releases for the big boys

Today two observations:

A)Meredith Whitney
The lady was on CNBC earlier this morning and probably the talk of the day as she raised her estimates on GS which are already 30% over street consensus. The stock hit a low of $50 now trading over $146. A bit late there on the call Mam!
Whitney also said that net tangible at BAC gave a value to the stock over $12. Making it one of the cheaper big banks out there. Yup owning a portfolio in California is really a great idea this week... NOT!
She also mentioned that Citi was a dead duck with the dilution having killed any chance of a rebound!

B)Paul Volcker
The only man in the BAM administration who can bring real reform and change is nowhere to be seen these days. This is truly a bad omen. If you let technocrats like Geithner and Bernanke to skip stones from one crisis to the next,we are in for a bigger fall! Instead the admin is bent on serving rhetoric of more legislation to plug holes in a system that does not work and only delay the inevitable.
We cannot understand why Health care reform is being pushed down the throats of legislators when the finances of the country are in such disarray. Sound to us like buying a very expensive engine when you can't afford to fill up the tank!
We strongly hope that Mr. Volcker doesn't give up and is able to convince enough idealists that NOW is the BEST time to fix the system while there is still goodwill behind the US dollar ( or is that ill will behind the Euro?)

You know when you are in trouble when analysts are bullish on stocks that have tripled off their lows and reformers are pushed aside in favor of populist rhetoric.

We are still short S&P as we expect earnings to dip 15% across the board

Good trading to you

DCW

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