Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Deflation... it's all down hill from here ... Just be happy it's still a W and not a flatliner

ANY ASSET DENOMINATED in USD IS TOXIC
It is so foolish to think that because the US wrote up 13 Trillion dollars of IOUs that a massive wave of inflation was coming! The planet already lost $50 trillion. Inflation is not the cause for concern, it 's deflation and countries who can't pay their debts!
People are just going to stop trading with the USA until they get their house in order and they will let rates rise until it does. The USD will rocket up while people expect it to go down.
Meantime short some mortgage institutions because 50 cents on the dollar is still not a good price. Banks are going to fail because mortgages will fail faster than the income can be generated by the interest spread. Mortgages renewals cannot be supported by the Treasury or the Fed.


COMMODITY RALLY is FOR THE BIRDS
Fools are playing the Commodity game trying to figure out what China will buy. The special du jour: Gold, Copper, Oil , Nat gas... There is no sustainable consumption numbers that justify another round of hoarding and speculation.
By the end of the year, only positions in US will show gains while EURO, HUANs, Rubles etc. will show declines...
The same happened to gold in 2007-2008... European holders got whacked holding the metal.
Why just not short US indices and avoid gyrations and tensions?


BEST BET SHORT S&P 500
Bonds are getting close to our target of 4.50-5.00%
You are better to short the S&P because 930 is a now a beacon for the shorts.

The US economy just had a modicum of recovery because inventories were seriously depleted. Don't confuse that with a recovery .. the economy will run at 60% of its heyday for quite a while... Profits will tank and we will test news lows soon enough!

We raised 50% in cash today!

Good trading to you!

DCW

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