tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7392621094000263482024-03-13T23:29:25.807-04:00Economic forecast (converting bla-bla into $$$)I have been investing money since I was 15. I have made lots of money for other people and I keep reminding them that I predicted some of the stuff that actually happened. I need to record this for posterity. I tried stockpicker last year and I had 80% return on my shorts and 40% on my longs. Lets see if I can help you in 2008 and beyonddidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-12324423871015496292011-07-12T16:00:00.000-04:002011-07-12T16:00:17.299-04:00It is getting scary... My little commie rant for you today!Politicians are like compulsive gamblers playing craps on your dime... Instead you should be playing" balance the budget roulette" with their heads. If they fail to get it done, it's the politicians heads that comes off... has worked before , should work again...<br />
Disgusted by Republicans who prefer a $2Tb deficit target (rather than $4TB) in exchange of no tax increases for the rich... the rich are freeloaders in US for way too long.... add to that... GAS should be $6.00 and all would be well in the US economy but no no no , country still controlled by archaic defense establishment, ethanol and the corn belt voters... makes me (&(*#@!!!!!<br />
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The Euro gold chart is the scariest I have ever seen. When Greece defaults, what will happen to the French Banks? In Italy, people are not waiting to find out, Italians and all investors are dumping banking stocks to the great rejoicing of short sellers...<br />
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Not going to be a quiet summer... Buy 'em gold... I am securing land in the Caribbean, we need to go to places where financiers are persona non grata. Just artists, cooks, beaches , and a barter economy! Coconuts anyone?didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-84399882821705288982011-06-27T09:28:00.000-04:002011-06-27T09:28:49.850-04:002008-2011 A period to reflect onWe sometimes wonder why men let themselves believe that their ill gotten gains will be swept under the carpet of time. Four years after the worst financial collapse of the last 60 years, we are still at the mercy of central bankers who print money, politicians courting Investment bankers for campaign contributions and a serious lack of Statesmen who do the right thing over the expediency.<br />
Why are there only two women Sheila Bair and Meredith Whitney constantly sounding alarms on the policies of foolish men.<br />
We relish in the falling of people who fall on their own swords or those intent on exposing them in public! <br />
The Obama administration is now geared to a second term and its policies are those of incumbents and not those of true leaders. Courting Wall street handouts, pulling out of Afghanistan are two quick ways to replenish the coffers and win the populist vote.<br />
We believe the repeal of Ethanol production, a serious cut to defense spending and a total review of immigration policies in a much better agenda.<br />
America is producing an amazing share of PhDs yet many of those budding entrepreneurs choose to take their education and go back to China, India, Brazil and start-up new ventures which once would have found home in Silicon Valley, Boston or Austin.<br />
The future is bleak and many a man are to blame... <br />
I still wonder if Hilary would have done a better job!<br />
In the meantime. an ear of sweet corn has gone up from 99 for a dozen to three for the same price. Gold has gone from $400 to $1500 and the list is long and painful to watch.<br />
Hope you enjoy your summer and the oracles on Greece prove too dire to come true! <br />
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didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-86284545609022436862010-11-12T16:00:00.000-05:002010-11-12T16:00:04.496-05:00G20 meeting, Private messageSimply said, Mr. president , we have our own problems and your pouring more dollars on the world stage is not helping anybody. If anything, it is a lopsided trade which bring about a collapse of commodity prices when it soon unravelS. Your Wall Street bankers are having a record year in bonuses and your uncontrolled debt building is going to put us all out of business. So do what you must but don't beg for endorsements of your king of fools, Ben Bernanke. The USA is damaged goods! VIVA CHINA! ( but not for long )didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-62194906033684730882010-10-27T10:13:00.002-04:002010-10-27T15:17:20.942-04:00September was different. Bulls won. October was a new commodities bubble in the makingDollar trading value around the globe has reached epidemic proportions. It is trading at 5x its peak since 1929. At $63TB, it is incomprehensible that every trader is chasing bets against the lowly buck and fueling a rampant speculation boom that will consume markets and institutions over the next five years. Smarter is the person who can pinpoint where the next flash point will be. Is it China 60% portion of GDP related to NON-INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION! ( a Healthy economy should be 10-15% MAX)?<br />
Is it rapid food and other commodities reaching all time highs against the US dollar?<br />
Let6's not get ahead of ourselves and work on DATA... <br />
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<br />
While the currencies gyrations we predicted did materialize in a big way, we can only start by commenting on the extraordinary moves on the S&P which is about to eclipse all previous records with a 10% gain for the month of September! As we analyzed the numbers and trading day patterns, we soon realized FLASH TRADING (supposedly outlawed) accounted for over 65% of the volumes. What is wrong with that? ( phew! I thought you would never ask)<br />
<a href="http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1914724,00.html">http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1914724,00.html</a><br />
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The process is obviously flawed. While US Economic data was awful, yes PLAIN AWFUL, the market traded really up on bad numbers and down on expected numbers. FLASH trading is encouraging rogue behavior and the markets are becoming nothing less than a rigged slot machine. So as September is usually a BAD MONTH if not the worse month of year, Flash trading made sure this was going to be a good month shopping a four month high on the DJIA and 20% of the S&P 500 stock index reached 52 week highs.We expect that the consequence of manipulated trading while seriously constrain smaller hedge funds which make real bets and are having their lunch handed to them. Any fund under $100MM in assets is surely to consider folding by year's end. Leaving an even bigger liquidity problem past the mid-term elections. We still contend that the markets will continue to go up Until the end of October.<br />
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But what is this really saying? Simply prices are manipulated and we are rapidly approaching hyper inflation. Signs?<br />
<br />
On September 21st, Bloomberg reporter Jeff Wilson had this to say:<br />
"The price of Class III milk, used to make cheese, rose in Chicago to the highest level in almost two years as global demand for dairy products increases. Cheese exports by major milk producers, including the European Union, New Zealand, Australia and the U.S., will rise 10% this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said… Wholesale-cheese prices are up 22% since the end of June, butter gained 25% and Class III milk rose 16%... ‘Export demand continues to improve’ for U.S. dairy products, said Roy Huckabay, the executive vice president for the Linn Group… ‘Milk is playing catch-up with the gains in butter and cheese.’”<br />
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To prove our point here are a few more:<br />
September 21 – Bloomberg: “Imports of refined copper by China, the largest consumer, gained for the second consecutive month in August, as traders ordered material to benefit from a profitable arbitrage window. Inbound shipments totaled 267,153 metric tons last month… That’s 19% higher than… July and 22% more than…a year earlier…” <br />
September 21 – Financial Times (Gregory Meyer): “The price of jeans and T-shirts could be about to rise. The world’s textile mills, nervous about a global shortage of cotton, have propelled prices of the fiber to their highest in more than a decade. This week’s jump in cotton prices above the $1 a pound level, for only the second time since the US civil war, has been a long time coming.” <br />
September 21 – Bloomberg (Aya Takada): “Rubber advanced to the highest level in almost five months amid expectation that the global market is set for the worst shortage in four years next year as weather constrains supply and demand keeps expanding… The price increased for a second day and has gained 10% this year.” <br />
September 21 – Bloomberg (Aya Takada and Supunnabul Suwannakij): “Bridgestone Corp., the largest tire maker by sales, is raising European prices for the second time this year and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. is charging more as rubber gains on prospects for the biggest shortage since 2007. ‘Drought earlier this year and heavy rains later on hampered tree-tapping across Asian plantations,’ said Pongsak Kerdvongbundit, managing director of… Von Bundit Co., the largest natural-rubber producer and exporter in the world’s biggest supplier. ‘Global production will lag behind soaring demand for at least another two years.’”<br />
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So here you have it, what you eat is in hyperinflation, what you wear and let's not forget basic material which were up at its highest levels in 10 years, Rubber, Copper, Gold!<br />
Do you really feel confident Bernanke and Geithner really have Savers in mind when they push rates down to 1/10th of the real inflation rate?<br />
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The FED objective of trying to put a bid under distressed assets rather than avoiding rampant speculation in commodities seem totally illogical to us. If we WERE FED chairman, we would go out there and corner strategic commodities and start to take out people trying to corner the market. Hoarding is not really a valuable endeavor for Wall Street firms but it is exactly what they are doing with their excess cash. .. Making a fast buck on others people misery is really low.<br />
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That brings us to our probable two outcomes. Hyper inflation being ONE OUTCOME: As I alluded to earlier hyper inflation is a real possibility in commodities if further Dollar devaluation continues unabated. What is your best defense? It is still buying FARM land in a THREE SEASONS growing climate with good access to an adequate aquifer. Five years ago , I was already musing on the rich arable land in Africa which could use modern agricultural methods. Obviously those methods based on profits will not work there because unequal wealth distribution rapidly escalate into turf wars.Unfortunately commodities have gone way higher than they should have thanks to the new Bernanke bubble. Too late now!<br />
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SECOND OUTCOME: Much more unlikely, Fed policy changes and decide that people need access to cheap food (over cheap housing) and institutes a sane price program but preventing Wall Street from speculating in commodities through hedge fund investing. Deflation in over built housing is not a bad thing. Banks should bite the bullet and not repeat Japan's mistakes. <br />
<br />
SOME PEOPLE ARE DOING WELL<br />
Germany economic output has improved. China is moderating growth through interest rates. Brazil and Russia are still there supplying resources! <br />
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</style> <![endif]--> <div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">The leader is Jakarta’s stock market which is up a stunning 44.1% thus far.Manila follows hard by, rising 40.2%. Bangkok is up 35.9%; Santiago’s market is up 34.3%, followed by Istanbul, also at 34.3% [Ed. Note: Istanbul lags Santiago by 0.1% to be precise.] and then comes Copenhagen, where stocks are up 27.1% [Ed. Note: Actually the Shenzhen “B” share index should be in 5</span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 6.5pt;">th </span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">place, but because it is “B” shares we’ve chosen to avoid counting</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">it amongst the world’s leading equities markets. The Shanghai Composite Index, on the other hand, is down</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">7.8% year to date and that is after the massive rally of</span>the past two weeks!]. Lifted from TGL.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span> WHY can't the good old USA figure out that a loose monetary policy only benefits Wall Street and practically nobody else??didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-15669011301081625202010-08-05T13:28:00.026-04:002010-08-05T16:53:18.406-04:00August: the calm before the fierce storms created by FX movesWHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT?<br />
The S&P in July rose over 7%. Leaving many a hedge fund dumbfounded. As Gary Kaminsky suggested, they will be hard pressed to cover the reminder of the year and beat the indices. Expect a few stock names to go stratospheric but most bets will be on commodity speculation.<br />
We are of the view that Oil prices are being propped up by a concerted effort of producers to keep the futures prices up. Anyways, we have lost all faith in getting a real sense of prices and their value. After reading Patel's book "Value of nothing" you soon realize that prices are set nowhere near the costs of owning anything let alone the cost to society and the planet as a whole. Prices for goods are set by a totally archaic and nonsensical basis of supply and demand. Through advertising, People are made to BUY BUY BUY while not really thinking about their actions and consequences.. In India a new car can cost less than $5K where you are hard pressed to find the same in Canada for less than $10K. Why?<br />
Economic theory followed today was written when less than 1 Billion people lived on earth. With more than 6 billion it is totally inadequate to deal with the world's mounting problems. <br />
Too bad the animals in the Gulf of Mexico don't get to vote on the price to charge for gasoline after the latest catastrophe.<br />
According to some studies, some other 300 deep sea SHUT-IN or DISCONTINUED wells may also erupt due to corrosion... If it takes more than 100 days to fix a new well, we wonder how long it takes to fix an old one!<br />
Well enough scary talk for a day! Let's get back to supply and demand!<br />
<br />
DEFLATION AND MASSIVE GVMT DEBT SCENARIO is INTACT IN US<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zeJn3aLezGhuDc9h0AllVeHqnm-10zgC-We1yEw6Pcwmsmt6lTSPt2R_Iumll66ZO5mcbsEQnZfFYydxlW7G0K3YSABOn5TNIXpk19gqT0JnOxceoDFnBdN2vY4on5w8iflm7CDqA8E/s1600/GFDEBTN_Max_630_378.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zeJn3aLezGhuDc9h0AllVeHqnm-10zgC-We1yEw6Pcwmsmt6lTSPt2R_Iumll66ZO5mcbsEQnZfFYydxlW7G0K3YSABOn5TNIXpk19gqT0JnOxceoDFnBdN2vY4on5w8iflm7CDqA8E/s640/GFDEBTN_Max_630_378.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
Next week the Fed meets. To prepare the terrain, US Treasury secretary Timothy F. Geithner (what does the F stand for? )wrote an Op ed yesterday in the New York Times vaunting his and Fed Chairman Bernanke calls in the past two years saying, the Administration's policies saved 8.5MM jobs vs. doing nothing. Interesting assumption... Bernanke is hinting that things in the near future will be done "à la Japonaise" i.e nothing. So if 2008, the FED was the BUYER of last resort, today the FED has delivered as they ARE, on our behalf, the HOLDER of last resort. This is for many years to come or until some sweet deal is negotiated in the backrooms. Good luck with that boys! Freddie, Fannie and the other in-breds' portfolios will continue to be held close to taxpayers balance sheets. This is a typical case of Prozac induced deflation courtesy of inane government policy. We are also curious to see how the FED plans to go after all those MBS issuers claiming fraud. <br />
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0cHCBQ5Lik8fDv7YVqiPc67KxXdPpnSnL-fsjVFe_C3MHy4VL0kxepi6IZtyg5TKKatxIT01QTk8AwRFZPOItocAyk4zRMCEzeDSrnM2H4xj-tJI7ZVoQodoOsUV65NfUzvEpbH5yRo/s1600/TOTLL_Max_630_378.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0cHCBQ5Lik8fDv7YVqiPc67KxXdPpnSnL-fsjVFe_C3MHy4VL0kxepi6IZtyg5TKKatxIT01QTk8AwRFZPOItocAyk4zRMCEzeDSrnM2H4xj-tJI7ZVoQodoOsUV65NfUzvEpbH5yRo/s640/TOTLL_Max_630_378.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<br />
So deflation will continue unabated in the US and for good measure the Fed will continue to hold Treasuries as it has no choice but to maintain appearances in an INCEPTION type state of disbelief while using QE as the drug of choice. Expect 10yr Treasuries to trend towards an idiotic 2%. The pressure on that cauldron will be unimaginable when it blows, and blow it will, but we are not standing brave enough to face off both the stealthy Fed and the US Treasury. Best leave that to the young wolves and the old foxes!<br />
<br />
According to Realty Trac , the top five US cities for foreclosures were: <br />
<div class="topForeclosureCities"><h3>Top Foreclosure Cities</h3><ol><li><a class="linkBlueDark" href="http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/nv/las+vegas-foreclosures.html" id="ctl00_PageContentPlaceholder_ForeclosureTrends_rptCities_ctl00_lnkCity">Las Vegas, NV</a></li>
<li><a class="linkBlueDark" href="http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/fl/miami-foreclosures.html" id="ctl00_PageContentPlaceholder_ForeclosureTrends_rptCities_ctl01_lnkCity">Miami, FL</a></li>
<li><a class="linkBlueDark" href="http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/il/chicago-foreclosures.html" id="ctl00_PageContentPlaceholder_ForeclosureTrends_rptCities_ctl02_lnkCity">Chicago, IL</a></li>
<li><a class="linkBlueDark" href="http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/fl/orlando-foreclosures.html" id="ctl00_PageContentPlaceholder_ForeclosureTrends_rptCities_ctl03_lnkCity">Orlando, FL</a></li>
<li><a class="linkBlueDark" href="http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/az/phoenix-foreclosures.html" id="ctl00_PageContentPlaceholder_ForeclosureTrends_rptCities_ctl04_lnkCity">Phoenix, AZ</a></li>
</ol><br />
That CHICAGO is third is both a surprise and a worry to us! </div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi03aDFBY1kWnXIdzw4PDkpmujtxcLvZ9rf9IG_azMfmGpEAyby-ARgmLMleLfIDEb3s1LQ-R1g3CRczGRDPTLgc0gEWzeeyAQsvjyKzlEGK1cejNrbZfMUrZGnvDwnfanIklnr0RYIRok/s1600/Moodys.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi03aDFBY1kWnXIdzw4PDkpmujtxcLvZ9rf9IG_azMfmGpEAyby-ARgmLMleLfIDEb3s1LQ-R1g3CRczGRDPTLgc0gEWzeeyAQsvjyKzlEGK1cejNrbZfMUrZGnvDwnfanIklnr0RYIRok/s640/Moodys.png" width="640" /></a></div> As this chart shows all gains of the last 7 years were washed away. Would have been better to rent and spend the money on vacations, some collectibles and retraining...<br />
<br />
Gold has proven a poor insurance policy as of late and we still think its prospects are limited.<br />
<br />
In conclusion, the US government, as a dying republic, funds a $1.3Tb deficit with very little hope of getting out of the tomb dug by the voting public. Nice Job people! <br />
<br />
So how is it out there in the rest of the world? EURO / USD CHART (last 120 days)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8vVQDBRjKO7Wb_cp5fzj_vkNZHRd8A4V_f5qJ4aScV-CeEp2LwIU5NijyLoK826IIZ_KnnH8Db295WBhyJ8fszBVgx7w3gUpxT6DQ64qaMepxo77ID4zg3QgzAInLnotkX3zX-oJfVA0/s1600/euro+YTD+2010+aug+white.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="441" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8vVQDBRjKO7Wb_cp5fzj_vkNZHRd8A4V_f5qJ4aScV-CeEp2LwIU5NijyLoK826IIZ_KnnH8Db295WBhyJ8fszBVgx7w3gUpxT6DQ64qaMepxo77ID4zg3QgzAInLnotkX3zX-oJfVA0/s640/euro+YTD+2010+aug+white.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<br />
BOOM for those who WANT TO WORK... EURO has RECOVERED SOMEWHAT<br />
Freight rates in Asia are up 50% over last October and the ships that comprise the Baltic Index are steaming ahead now showing a 2% idle time vs. 12% last year. <br />
<br />
Liner board prices have gone up and the UPSes of the world show nice numbers. <br />
<br />
It has been our contention that Germany is enjoying a huge export boom and flooding the markets with its goods and machinery. Teutonic power at work. Our local dealer announces, with glee, further price decreases for 2011 Mercedes. BRING them on boys! We all need more gas guzzling toys!<br />
<br />
WHEAT<br />
With The Ukraine and Russia disparaging each other over wheat crops estimates, fall prices have seen huge speculation to the upside. I would hate to be an industrial baker right now and having to decide the future of those prices. It's a bit like airlines locking jet fuels at $67 or $140. There are going to winners and whiners.<br />
Best for the bakers to recite the Lord's prayer. It can't hurt!<br />
<br />
In the Meantime, we continue to hold a firm amount of US bonds, a healthy portion of Euros and expect Spain to be center stage this fall with its very precarious economy.<br />
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CHEAP OLIVE OIL COMING! <br />
<br />
Good trading to you<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-37242232181638607312010-07-14T22:33:00.000-04:002010-07-14T22:33:58.301-04:00Bastille DayNot many bullish people have made money year to date.<br />
We have spent most of 2010 trying to understand which forces would define the year. Would it be deflationary or inflationary?<br />
<br />
The result has been a mixed bag around the planet. While food prices have been contained for now, we saw foolish commodity speculation in metals and energy.<br />
<br />
An encouraging note is the backstop on Greek debt is holding (probably to unravel after labor day though).<br />
<br />
The most striking anecdotal observation was in tourism. Both in Montreal and The Berkshires, we noticed incredible tourism spending. It is evidence that there is money flowing when the consumer is not reeling from leverage compression. <br />
<br />
On a more somber note, which comes from Middle America ( as usual), we have come to the conclusion that TARP has hurt local banking which was unable or willing to write off the more toxic commercial real estate on their books. While Wall street knew how to use Tarp money and lavish it on adroit traders , the more than 900 regional bank on the TARP continued to deal with gangrenous real estates loans. While it is beyond hope for many, expect vulture funds to swoop in until the FIDC receives a fire sale mandate form the powers that be.<br />
<br />
As emerging economies continuing to adjust to tight credit conditions, America and the Yankee dollar are going to feel the credit raters readjusting...<br />
<br />
Lets hope the Q2 results now in full swing get massaged enough to create an environment where investors back job creators otherwise a Republican landslide in both houses is to be expected. At this point, this might not be a bad thing as Obama know how to spend but is definitely not on a value creation agenda.<br />
<br />
Enjoy the dog days!<br />
<br />
PS BP FIX IT! enough already!<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-20701561178678505062010-06-04T08:47:00.000-04:002010-06-04T08:47:54.516-04:00So much for Obama's promises.. S&P 666There were no jobs in May... and 22,000 LESS in revisions to March and April...<br />
Double dip here we come!<br />
Worse, the credibility of the commander in chief is seriously put to the test.<br />
While the president raised eyebrows on job creation earlier this week, his hubris has come to light. What is worse is the LACK of new jobs being created out there...<br />
<br />
So back to the short on S&P... no harm done as there is much more to go on our way to S&P 666<br />
<br />
Good trading to you<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-76720381501106793852010-06-02T17:37:00.003-04:002010-06-02T23:08:01.664-04:00My brakes work better than Toyota's, time to cover shorts... until fridayAfter a stellar month on the short size, Obama personally guaranteed me 500,000 new jobs For MAY.<br />
<br />
Nice to know that he knows this three days before the rest of us but probably three days after the guys with the black boxes on Wall street...<br />
<br />
During his speech at Carnegie Mellon, Obama said to expect a "strong " jobs report on Friday.<br />
Would he stick his neck out like that if he didn't have some idea? ( how many are Census Jobs?)<br />
Analysts are expecting unemployment of 9.8% and new job creation of 500K, so that's the benchmark.<br />
Maybe the shorts should take the warning.<br />
<br />
We will and wait until friday...didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-5034353629294794142010-05-17T16:13:00.004-04:002010-05-18T13:43:09.248-04:00Euro gold has run it's course; The profit machine of BIG OIL is in DEEP TROUBLE!State of our successful calls <br />
So this is getting repetitive bu today we are starting to pull back on all the negativity. We have been short ALL equities since April 21st when the S&P hit 1208. We maintain our call that the S&P 500 is still the best market to short and that the Euro suffers rightfully in the hands of its creators, malevolent Eurocrats. In the same esprit, we NOW recommend to cover EUROPEAN EQUITY SHORTS and start analyzing potential stocks that can benefit a low euro... <br />
<br />
<br />
A 4 MONTH WINDOW...<br />
North American and Asian exporters to Europe are going to report massive losses when their receivables start clicking at 25% less... Oh yes, supposedly, banks are supposed to help their clients hedge their currency risks but we all know that they charge a fortune for that service. When in the full midst of a recession, we all know that safety and R&D are usually the first items to be chopped off. In this case financial safety through hedging really got impacted. An analysis of Wall street desks did not show accrued business in currency hedging. Clients must have reasoned that is has been unnecessary for the longest of time and some people just took on a bad risk... Now the premiums are too high and frankly the export business has all but dried up. <br />
<br />
In a fit of perverse reasoning ( which usually pays very well for us) we think that some Euro stocks will show stellar results because of a falling euro. The likes of Volkswagen, Nestle, Unilever and other multinational will thrive. They will compete very well at home against imports while their exports will show amazing currency gains. We therefore advise to look for European companies and use a steep sell-off (anything over 5% a day or 9% a week) to build a 1/3 position while instituting discipline stop losses).<br />
<br />
While positions are built in Europe, Chinese and Indian stocks look ripe for selling. We have seen serious signs that infrastructure stocks ( landlines telecom notably) have been hitting 52 week lows. By the same token, the predicted fall of the Yen vs. the USD should have you place this no-brainer from May to September currency bet until end of August...<br />
<br />
We still do not understand all the upward movement in gold in EURO terms. Interest rates will rise in the biggest deficit member countries. Holding gold will end up being a 10% gainer when there are are much higher returns to be had holding higher yielding instruments. We know very well that Greece and the other PIIGS might be able to announce IMF, World Bank, ECB intervention. We also fully well know it will take time before the money is in place and there is more grumbling ahead. With a kitty of $750BB no member is ont eh verge of defaulting any time soon. While we are convinced rated charged to members countries will inevitably divide the groups into As and Bs, the latter will pay at least 400bps more to borrow. Gold will then become a very unappealing instrument when the yields will confront low inflation. Good European companies with superb rating will be able to borrow at very favorable rates and showing stellar profits... SO if I can advise our European based gold bugs... change course, sell the metal and buy stocks... remember the date May 17th 2010...<br />
<br />
<br />
OIL WILL LEAD EVERYTHING LOWER<br />
<br />
Here all hell is about to break loose... Support lines are breaking everywhere and the currencies are too high for their own good. With no plan in place to balance its budgets, no political system with a clear mandate to do so, we can only wait for the depression to bring about new lows on North American equities... the Export picture for both March and April were well below our expectations and imports rose in both countries. that means anemic job growth at best.<br />
With the latest 60 minutes <a href="http://www.cbs.com/primetime/60_minutes/video/?pid=pMKLhmm7XQBQ2O_0q8zOFxBFCmY6ixf3&vs=Default&play=true">http://www.cbs.com/primetime/60_minutes/video/?pid=pMKLhmm7XQBQ2O_0q8zOFxBFCmY6ixf3&vs=Default&play=true</a><br />
which took two segments to explain the BP/TRANSOCEAN HORIZON RIG disaster, we just learned that there is a 16 well system which is 100 times bigger and probably as accident prone... You just need to remember what pictures and videos did to the seal fear industry, the oil spill will literally destroy any profit making scheme for big oil for the next five years... While the Titanic only sank once, in this case, there are hundred of accidents waiting to happen... SO if Exxon and many giant oil companies are hitting 52 week lows, we believe oil is going to hit many more lows. The industry has hit the iceberg of public opinion!<br />
<br />
One guy who might enjoy all this diverted attention will be Lloyd Blankfein who must be enjoying his daily dose of schadenfreude. Adamant on destroying any possible passing of the Volcker rule, let big bad Oil that the wrap while Wall Street wants to keep business as usual. <br />
<br />
WHY o WHY are we surrounded by such people? <br />
<br />
Off on the bike to deliver our second to last stock certificates, we have sold all our private companies. We are going to buy farm land in many parts of the world and avoid many parts of the paper or electronic economy until an element of accountability and reason return to society... That might take a while...<br />
<br />
<br />
Good trading to you<br />
<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-78065458808822421462010-05-04T13:39:00.004-04:002010-05-04T15:46:57.185-04:00We all like records... sort of...What a week.<br />
This post was originally written on April 30th but stayed in our draft folder due to a medical emergency... So if the tone is dated the information is of relevance<br />
<br />
Posturing and grandstanding on Capital Hill On Tuesday and criminal charges against GS filed on Thursday<br />
Rating agencies and Greece yields competing for the limbo title<br />
US exports numbers making some stocks shoot up but domestic look anemic at best<br />
<br />
We are more worried by two events:<br />
<br />
The oil spill in the gulf ( going to eclipse the damage of the EXXON VALDEZ)<br />
US Illegals: Immigrants and Emigrants both records...<br />
<br />
THE OIL SPILL<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_7xbruxhg4ugvDBAza49Hwd4H4VYqJk1VhvkqK3Ymq9VqGXBt_5M-vrQ5V2hyphenhyphenEK1g5Q75tQzHfyFO6Nlrb_xcdEKnMu1SBQh3TlX-IWxqkxDRmrrarpmu0W4rWCxySf7o7adz6ccSftg/s1600/oil-boom-birds-050110jpg-e1d6807fd21ca886.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_7xbruxhg4ugvDBAza49Hwd4H4VYqJk1VhvkqK3Ymq9VqGXBt_5M-vrQ5V2hyphenhyphenEK1g5Q75tQzHfyFO6Nlrb_xcdEKnMu1SBQh3TlX-IWxqkxDRmrrarpmu0W4rWCxySf7o7adz6ccSftg/s320/oil-boom-birds-050110jpg-e1d6807fd21ca886.jpg" tt="true" /></a></div>The leak from a blown-out well a mile underwater is five times bigger than first believed. Faint fingers of oily sheen were reaching the Mississippi River delta late Thursday, lapping the Louisiana shoreline in long, thin lines. Thicker oil was about five miles offshore. Officials have said they would do everything to keep the Mississippi River open to traffic.<br />
<div class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>The oil slick could become the nation's worst environmental disaster in decades, <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36850248/ns/us_news-environment/">threatening to eclipse even the Exxon Valdez in scope</a>. It imperils hundreds of species of fish, birds and other wildlife along the Gulf Coast, one of the world's richest seafood grounds, teeming with shrimp, oysters and other marine life.<br />
Sooner or later, the world will realize uncontrolled used of oil and passing on to taxpayers the real costs of its use must stop once and for all... <br />
Europe understood that by taxing the hell out of it and somehow plowing back 30% into non-social projects. Can the US do the same... If you remember THREE MILE INCIDENT, it killed any nuclear plant construction for THIRTY (30) years. WILL this be the watershed event that will seriously curtail high risk drilling? I wouldn't want to be in the DEEP SEA OIL platform BUILDING business for the next three years... New regulations will take for ever to be finalized and in the meantime, the Shipyards will be vacant...<br />
<br />
With a bunch of hillbillies , pick-up trucks and tea drinkers poised to wrap themselves in the American gas guzzler fall election parade, I fear the moment has not yet come to see $6 a gallon gas but it is a comin'.<br />
<br />
Have you ever seen a COUNTRY SONG where alternative energy, hybrid cars are used?.. NAH! That would be silly and make you look weak. AMERICA stands for lots of BHP under the hood! the land of NASCAR, DRAG RACING, the 18 WHEELER and the DINER!<br />
<br />
I think this disaster is going to make RAIL SERVICE have a bigger share of the transportation market. Too bad it falls in the middle of a depression...<br />
<br />
EMIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION<br />
<br />
Fighting for FIRST PRIZE in the 2010 WORST POLITICAL TIMING DECISION YEAR TO DATE:<br />
1)PRESIDENT OBAMA EXTENDING OFFSHORE DRILLING RIGHTS<br />
<br />
and close behind<br />
<br />
2)ARIZONA CODIFYING RACIAL PROFILING INTO LAW<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibN9-h42_09jIH9Z5Q74uCSfM4ArIOsK8bn04DuWL1mJhqD3SfTb2TUcUP27nrxtqTg_KLSrPuu_CgHvRc_85M7etivftwnWDAWjym3Y-sZtZ1vmSePMDofEFzNQqDOeJzEqNEp-3eGTo/s1600/racial-profiling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibN9-h42_09jIH9Z5Q74uCSfM4ArIOsK8bn04DuWL1mJhqD3SfTb2TUcUP27nrxtqTg_KLSrPuu_CgHvRc_85M7etivftwnWDAWjym3Y-sZtZ1vmSePMDofEFzNQqDOeJzEqNEp-3eGTo/s320/racial-profiling.jpg" tt="true" /></a></div>Governments are there to serve and protect the people. There are supposed to offer free access to commerce and to support thriving communities where access to education converts into high paying jobs and prosperity for all. They are not there to run car companies, provide arbitrary measures of what constitute value, efficiency or in this case what makes economic sense to a community.<br />
TO start with a cliche , the world's greatest powers were always thriving when immigrants and traders came into to share work and exchange good and services.<br />
THE fall of these mighty empires always can be traced to people not so inclined to come over and just happy to send underlings.<br />
Soon enough this will come back to haunt those short sighted lawmakers as those economies will suffer one of their worst drop in economic activity... Thank god they will be able to blame everything and everybody except themselves... If you think Arizona had cheap real estate, you haven't seen anything yet!<br />
<br />
TWO very scary statistics came out this year:<br />
A) 2-3MM "illegal immigrants" aren't coming to work in the USA anymore finding the prospects not worth it. Already many misses in top line revenue by companies who catered to these hard underpaid workers who did the menial jobs any blue blood yank would not dare get his hands dirty doing...<br />
B) A record number of US EMIGRANTS have renounced their citizenship... While a laughable number ( less than 600) it might be a trend as baby boomers realize that the US consumption craze is just not worth it any more especially as their broken Governments at most levels are creeping daily ever more into their affairs neither making them happier, healthier or safer.<br />
Here is a short list of unconfirmed numbers of Ex-Pats who haven't decided to renounce their citizenship just yet but with massive deficits, higher taxes and a socialist agenda, get ready to see those numbers change considerably when 30% of your taxes doesn't have to pay the Pentagon's budget, 40% to Entitlements and most of the rest to debt servicing....<br />
US EXPATRIATES LIVING IN<br />
# Canada - 688,000<br />
# Mexico - 500,000<br />
# Philippines - 250,000<br />
# Israel Israel - 184,195 (admirable precision to collect on Israel bond drives)<br />
# United Kingdom - 150,000<br />
# Germany - 92,000<br />
# Dominican Republic - 80,000<br />
# South Korea - 67,000<br />
# Australia - 64,000<br />
# France - 62,000<br />
# Hong Kong 60,000<br />
Finally, we maintain our sell rating on the Euro as we think Greece will be forced out of the EURO zone or quit on its own. May that be a lesson to all nations that have a laisser-faire attitude when fueling massive deficits and failing to prosecute tax dodgers. You may survive several bad marriages but when credit goes , you better have a new game plan!<br />
<br />
Good trading to you!<br />
<br />
DCW<br />
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</div>didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-39108833568951324142010-04-21T12:45:00.004-04:002010-04-29T10:44:52.673-04:00DUMP equities.YOU BEST SELL EQUITIES "EN MASSE"!<br />
<br />
Bond rally coming... 3.60 on 10yr T<br />
<br />
Gold going to tank... still saying 1060 and lower on way to $960. People who take refuge in an unproductive asset during deflationary times are wearing hydrogen filled balloons while smoking a cigar in a pine grove.<br />
<br />
Euro going to retest lows... 1.28-1.30, will break 1.32 support soon<br />
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<br />
Why?<br />
<br />
I could tell you but then you would go tell everybody and I would get these pesky reporters asking for my credentials...<br />
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A premise: massive deficits and FED fund rates nil... economy NOT growing nearly enough to justify MARKET VALUATION<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwj153D9nXMaPT_W5erjx9dKjuaZCbwWyjBwEBiNPFFeOnFGOk8SDtYnNiqP4mhxnz4w0nl5YZmJMxRTAHi_YmyA-_BybeYLRfDJ9Cp8-LXGT1CReNB_aiIbWt_m2qyxT6Z_6FIEspHm8/s1600/640px-Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwj153D9nXMaPT_W5erjx9dKjuaZCbwWyjBwEBiNPFFeOnFGOk8SDtYnNiqP4mhxnz4w0nl5YZmJMxRTAHi_YmyA-_BybeYLRfDJ9Cp8-LXGT1CReNB_aiIbWt_m2qyxT6Z_6FIEspHm8/s320/640px-Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg.png" /></a></div><br />
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<br />
<br />
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<br />
A Little Secret... if you notice all these "stellar" PROFITS" ( remember PROFIT is a ACCOUNTING OPINION) on the NYSE and NAZ ... are LACKING OBVIOUS SUPPORTING indicator... NO TOP LINE GROWTH ANYWHERE...<br />
<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wL4hILd-s3xEJj20RsDPjuHhTuJ2DME_lD4mvCN910lKsMqE1isTBGIiiFBvTMF2ks_bIXwlyXrTQjR0hGMBbRi2wDWPSYWzhGpKNSA3U-9e-N7TARWDFgaSeepIywbDDtucbpU6ePg/s1600/S&P+500+Trailing+earnings+December+2009.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wL4hILd-s3xEJj20RsDPjuHhTuJ2DME_lD4mvCN910lKsMqE1isTBGIiiFBvTMF2ks_bIXwlyXrTQjR0hGMBbRi2wDWPSYWzhGpKNSA3U-9e-N7TARWDFgaSeepIywbDDtucbpU6ePg/s320/S&P+500+Trailing+earnings+December+2009.gif" /></a></div><br />
<br />
I Don't know if you ever bet on fights... but generally you try to avoid betting on the guy with a hand tied behind his back...<br />
<br />
Would also explain why insiders are SELLING 53:1 ... not a very comforting thought...<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1DghMqioy31rodD3CgFDq2Cp1pTbtI2v9FMygZxfEk0ovXdA7UvbaXFSwBDRl39XiXjq1K1e9c14nbr-FYCYLNP8uL-mzQmQXegx6NScHR62hLGNTy6CoEM6ncu7v5PoBjs8o7TnSP_A/s1600/ichart-1368007-960-180-0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1DghMqioy31rodD3CgFDq2Cp1pTbtI2v9FMygZxfEk0ovXdA7UvbaXFSwBDRl39XiXjq1K1e9c14nbr-FYCYLNP8uL-mzQmQXegx6NScHR62hLGNTy6CoEM6ncu7v5PoBjs8o7TnSP_A/s640/ichart-1368007-960-180-0.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<br />
So if for the insouciants a 70% rally is not pause for reflection showing NO GROWTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! then stay in this loonie bin, otherwise do like me, BAG profits... and check out safer ports until TOP LINE revenue comes back ... Without top line, no NEW jobs, with no jobs, state deficits have no way of cut down until administrators commit the sin of firing their own people... aka Harakiri... well that;s just before we release dandy numbers on people behind on their mortgages...<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Ezdzqbb_vzdGzjnKy8La4WWphJhTmm0lti250fzpreTHl1dONfxJ8vWT6AmHBPyAunkvlDhhP8QMPsbXlK2DKkb4xQqXyj4nXY9N_R162OPwko8GFpS02Q61Yjw6zBKlid0Al9UZ9Ac/s1600/output.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Ezdzqbb_vzdGzjnKy8La4WWphJhTmm0lti250fzpreTHl1dONfxJ8vWT6AmHBPyAunkvlDhhP8QMPsbXlK2DKkb4xQqXyj4nXY9N_R162OPwko8GFpS02Q61Yjw6zBKlid0Al9UZ9Ac/s320/output.jpg" width="248" /></a></div><br />
<br />
In the meantime don't mistake all the noise about Goldman and other investigated banks, it's all a PLOY to give you a REASON for a market fall but the real reason is the equity market is WAY TOO EXPENSIVE for an economy smaller than in 2000. PLUS when Goldman is busy fighting charges it will be lesser inclined to SHORT Obama, Geithner or Bernanke... Can a scorpion really be anything else? When it comes to GS, it will always be business, HUM...I mean, ruthless as usual!<br />
<br />
BTW the S&P stands at 1208.06 when I said to dump... Let's see what the next 30 days show...<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6n2ydhE4mARw_2zFRGQvxGwaS6ii2OiEXyVw9945oGB9hCXQ4ha09ceA3Gmh85RKsJYZympkosyI1aNGqzjy82irWhMMETJufwQYm-QV7LI4YpOAfXO-Q-z5xpgKLCHvEC_Zgxbr-U2c/s1600/S&P+500+index+chart+December+2009.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6n2ydhE4mARw_2zFRGQvxGwaS6ii2OiEXyVw9945oGB9hCXQ4ha09ceA3Gmh85RKsJYZympkosyI1aNGqzjy82irWhMMETJufwQYm-QV7LI4YpOAfXO-Q-z5xpgKLCHvEC_Zgxbr-U2c/s320/S&P+500+index+chart+December+2009.gif" /></a></div>didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-84887357351022528072010-04-16T15:18:00.000-04:002010-04-16T15:18:33.024-04:00Why rub your nose in it.?Our moment of clarity of our last post lives on .. with no changes ...<br />
After tax deadline DAY, we figured we would try a different tack and discuss issues of a more cerebral nature than dirty old money scandals and such... keep that in mind when we realize no indictments will EVER be served, or any successful prosecution is a pipe dream against the puppeteers of Wall street. 41 REPUBLICAN Senators just voted against financial reform bill... does it surprise anybody? the party of the HELL , no!<br />
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<div class="MsoPlainText">ON FAMILY</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><span style="color: #1f497d;"></span></div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">On his way to school, My son complained that at <span style="color: #1f497d;">the ripe old age of </span>15<span style="color: #1f497d;">,</span> he could not write poetry for an assignment. I explained to him that <span style="color: #1f497d;">his soul had been hijacked by devilish deeds brought about by his inclination towards mild forms of truancy (the apple does not fall far from </span>the<span style="color: #1f497d;"> tree). I further developed ( in jest) a “conspiracy theory” that </span>evil <span style="color: #1f497d;">dwellers living in the deep recesses of </span>"electronicians" <span style="color: #1f497d;">‘s psyches, pushed them to unleash </span>these little hand held devises that ate children's souls one click at a time. He had long ago lost his soul and it would take some interaction with the real world before he got it back IF ever.<span style="color: #1f497d;"> I explained to him that material possessions, as a measure of self, rarely gave the soul any space to breathe and flourish. I</span> <span style="color: #1f497d;">am often reminded of Oscar Wilde’s definition of a cynic: “ he knows the </span><i><span style="font-family: Consolas;">Price of everything</span></i>, <i><span style="font-family: Consolas;">value of nothing”. </span></i>I relayed to <span style="color: #1f497d;">my son, </span> there are probably many more poets in the tinniest Favela than in all of Westmount or TMR... Mind you, he might dispute that by saying that a white<span style="color: #1f497d;"> </span>17yr old driving his own loaded Bimmer with a penchant for spewing Hip-Hop lyrics is indeed urban Poetry<span style="color: #1f497d;"> ( in motion)</span>. The debate was postponed as he had been driven to destination while I denoted over 200 kids in rain gear younger than him taking public transport to school<span style="color: #1f497d;">. Do I need to get him a Bimmer to make him a Poet? Does a cynic forfeit his soul in exchange of his little attacks on those living around him? Man! Never thought driving a teen to school would become a philosophical navel gazing exercise?</span></div><div class="MsoPlainText">ON EDUCATION</div><div class="MsoPlainText"></div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHXyVGf2Zsu50VC2wgU1OfIV-9pkA0FnCJO-gv9U6v7u8p99GeeTKqHGnEMy54Kc31qMSFZCn_UNNNtrqUcdMNaKnR9BJJrVidUnNGh454qtvXtXvfj508kN3Q83kAfaTCFPhVTiM4N4I/s1600/syracuse+U.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHXyVGf2Zsu50VC2wgU1OfIV-9pkA0FnCJO-gv9U6v7u8p99GeeTKqHGnEMy54Kc31qMSFZCn_UNNNtrqUcdMNaKnR9BJJrVidUnNGh454qtvXtXvfj508kN3Q83kAfaTCFPhVTiM4N4I/s320/syracuse+U.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 18pt;">SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Whitman School of Management<br />
<br />
<b>Overall 2009 BusinessWeek Rank:</b> 49<br />
<b>Private School ROI Rank:</b> 18<br />
<b>Annual Tuition & Fees:</b>$35,398<br />
<b>Median Salary:</b> $53,000<br />
<b>Salary Per Tuition Dollar:</b> $1.50<br />
<b>Business Students with Job Offers at Graduation:</b> 80%<br />
<b>Top Industries Hiring Business Graduates:</b> Accounting, Financial Services, Consumer Products/Retail<br />
<b>Top Employers:</b> JPMorgan Chase, RSM McGladrey, PricewaterhouseCoopers<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">Jamie Dimon getting mixed reviews as the choice for this year's Syracuse commencement day speaker.</div><div class="MsoPlainText">After giving $30MM for a tech center to Syracuse U., JP Morgan should get to blab about all the good things NYC capitalism has brought to the world in the last decade.</div><div class="MsoPlainText">As a recently undergraduate, I could be made to feel safer knowing Mr. Dimon and his kind are out there to create jobs, re-energize the American dream and make my future so much better... In the meantime , Portugal is now the second act of fake news engineered by Wall street guys who need trading activity to pay their sky high NJ property taxes...</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">In other news, this is the first time since WWII that more foreign post-graduates in % have decided to go back to their Shanghais and Mumbais of this world rather than either NYC or Silicon valley... Knowing full well they will receive 20% of a Yank's salary, they mostly cited Opportunity and potential Job satisfaction as reason to leave American shores...</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">A noted example is this year's graduating class of Harvard MBAs ( hardly useful people ) . It comprised 1/3 American males, 1/3 American females and 1/3 foreigners . More than 50% of the foreigners <span style="color: #1f497d;">aren</span>'t staying and taking cushy jobs in the good old USA... The exodus of grey matter is even worse at Cal Tech, MIT or Princeton... Interesting no? When US housing is supposedly <span style="color: #1f497d;">at its </span>the most AFFORDABLE since WWII... me thinketh the 7-11K Sq. Ft. Homes are now going to be considered WHITE Elephants... ( Isn't the elephant some US party's mascot?<span style="color: #1f497d;"> The party of Christian values and the sanctity of the family unit ?</span> How ironic! Good time to mention it to Sarah <span style="color: #1f497d;">P. </span>and other tea drinkers ) </div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">ON RELIGION</div><div class="MsoPlainText">I found my road to Sainthood</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><a href="http://www.global-view.com/forums/chart.php?f=6&id=302019">http://www.global-view.com/forums/chart.php?f=6&id=302019</a></div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoPlainText">ON READING</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">Between breaks, I have been reading three very different books and the perspectives are enlightening</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">How Jesus became a Christian</div><div class="MsoPlainText">Beatrice and Virgil</div><div class="MsoPlainText">The big Short: Inside the doomsday machine</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
</div><div class="MsoPlainText">I wish I could find people who actually read books any more... such a challenge!</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoPlainText">ON SLEEPING ( OR EATING)</div><div class="MsoPlainText"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">I have been kept awake by thoughts of the NEW tobacco baron of this Century ,,, EVIL MONSANTO which managed ( by paying off all three arms of US institutions) to get patents on seeds. That's about as insane as these genetics companies that can ( without asking) take YOUR OWN DNA and easily get a patent on Any of your genes and you LOOSE rights to your own DNA... These companies create markers that allow doctors to test you for specific diseases but as soon as you send your test sample<span style="color: #1f497d;"> ( and a $3000 check) </span>you<span style="color: #1f497d;"> de facto </span> forfeit the right to your DNA... HOW sick is that?</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rbJHvS5bpmmyHHkKm11-HzYlHeuziSJVLlNVj1_F2AvYseO1mJ6fJnZURhYAxHESKMFud-yDpw2ToKIKkEx8Wf9EdIkAgICmIB0h4TAx4LpQJnzpDv7tHrlgRodxr-heIilfxhgiA6w/s1600/Monsanto.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8rbJHvS5bpmmyHHkKm11-HzYlHeuziSJVLlNVj1_F2AvYseO1mJ6fJnZURhYAxHESKMFud-yDpw2ToKIKkEx8Wf9EdIkAgICmIB0h4TAx4LpQJnzpDv7tHrlgRodxr-heIilfxhgiA6w/s320/Monsanto.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">In the next twenty years, it will be the biggest fight of all times to get those pseudo biotech <span style="font-family: Consolas; font-size: 10.5pt;">cockroaches out of the American food and healthcare system... The problem is they are destroying all ability for the system to source non </span> GMO seeds... Monsanto has 75 fulltime investigators in the US alone ( ex-military, enforcement, linebacker types ) travelling the country side, unlawfully taking soil samples and issuing Cease and desist orders to targeting "sole" proprietors. The few farmers who tried to challenge Monsanto in court , few ever get there! <a href="http://www.percyschmeiser.com/">http://www.percyschmeiser.com/</a></div><div class="MsoNormal"> For the " privilege" to have a non-day in court, these farmers<span style="color: #1f497d;"> </span>have paid UP to $1MM in legal fees NOT to get their cases heard...Monsanto will be rebuked but they have deep pockets and nobody YET <span style="color: #1f497d;">h</span>as the money or the will to fight a $36BB mkt cap company and its<span style="color: #1f497d;"> yearly </span> $1.36BB profit.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> In the meantime, must <span style="color: #1f497d;">we</span> remind you <span style="color: #1f497d;">“</span>Monsanto SELLS 90% OF THE WORLD'S genetically engineered (GE) seeds<span style="color: #1f497d;">” </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Isn't that tobacco litigation COMING DOWN THE PIPE ALL over again? The US judicial system is so easily gamed by moneyed interests, WHY do people then DEPLORE the rise of US militias amongst rural populations?</div><div class="MsoNormal">Of 95 seed brokers , Monsanto and other robber barons have managed to put out of business 91... Not bad boys! Oh and I think of the last four, three are in litigation with... wait for it... Monsanto! You are good<span style="color: #1f497d;">! </span> thank you for guessing...</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #1f497d;">Next we expect Monsanto to get legislation passed to outlaw seed cleaners...<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">24 or 25 top executives at Monsanto were hired from FDA, Justice, and IN the last 4 administrations...</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Here is <span style="color: #1f497d;">our</span> recent scorecard...</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Justice Clarence Thomas worked as an attorney for Monsanto in the 1970s. Thomas wrote the majority opinion in the 2001 Supreme Court decision J. E. M. Ag Supply, Inc. v. Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc.|J. E. M. AG SUPPLY, INC. V. PIONEER HI-BREDINTERNATIONAL, INC.[5] which found that "newly developed plant breeds are patentable under the general utility patent laws of the United States." This case benefitted all companies which profit from genetically modified crops, of which Monsanto is one of the largest.[99][105][106]</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Dr. Michael A. Friedman was a deputy commissioner of the FDA before he was hired as a senior vice president of Monsanto.[99]</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Linda J. Fisher was an assistant administrator at the United States Environmental Protection Agency<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"></span> (EPA) before she was a vice president of Public Affairs at Monsanto from 1995 - 2000. In 2001, Fisher became the deputy administrator of the EPA.[99]. Now at DuPont as Vice President Safety, Health and Environment and Chief Sustainability Officer of DuPont</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was chairman and chief executive officer of G. D. Searle & Co., which Monsanto purchased in 1985. Rumsfeld personally made at least $12 million USD from the transaction.[99</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Josh King, former director of production for White house events, is now the director of global communication in Monsanto's Washington, D.C. Office.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Clayton K. Yeutter, former Secretary of the USDA, former U.S. Trade representative who led U.S. negotiations in the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement and helped launch the Uruguay round of the GATT negotiations, is now a member of the board of directors of Mycogen, whose majority owner is Dow. (Mycogen is also the corporation that holds the patent on a technology to genetically alter plants to produce and deliver "edible vaccines.")</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Terry Medley, former administrator of the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Serve, former chair and vice-chair of the USDA Biotechnology Council, and former member of the FDA Food Advisory Committee, is now presiding as the director of regulatory and external affairs of Dupont's agriculture enterprise.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Micky Kantor, former Secretary of the US Dept. of Commerce and former US Trade Representative, is now a member of the board of directors of Monsanto.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * William D. Ruckelshaus, the former chief administrator of the US EPA is now (and for the past 12 years) a member of the board of directors of Monsanto. On April 17, 2008, Ruckelshaus made news again when he announced his endorsement of Democrat Barack Obama for President of the United States.On May 7, 2008, Ruckelshaus was appointed to the Washington State Puget Sound Partnership, an agency devoted to cleaning up Puget Sound. ( basically the worst ecological disaster in the USA today...</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Lidia Watrud, a former microbial biotechnology researcher at Monsanto, is now with the US EPA. Here is her current bio... <a href="http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/staff/watrud.htm">http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/staff/watrud.htm</a> Check out her recent papers... talk about the fox keeping guard at the hen house...</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Margaret Miller, a former laboratory supervisor for Monsanto, is now Deputy Director of Human Food Safety and Consultative Services in the US FDA. ( that makes me feel SO MUCH safer!)</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> * Michael R. Taylor was an assistant to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner before he left to work for a law firm on gaining FDA approval of Monsanto’s artificial growth hormone in the 1980s. Taylor then became deputy commissioner of the FDA from 1991 to 1994.[99] Taylor was later re-appointed to the FDA in August 2009 by President Barack Obama.[107] There you go all you Obama lovers... Nice President you got there... same ilk as Rumsfeld now... Jul 17, 2009 — In a Tuesday afternoon press release, the FDA announced that Michael Taylor, a former Monsanto executive, had joined the agency as “senior advisor to the commissioner.” If the title is vague, the portfolio (pasted from the press release) is substantial—a kind of food czar of the Food and Drug Administration: Here are his responsibilities.. </div><div class="MsoNormal">Assess current food program challenges and opportunities</div><div class="MsoNormal">• Identify capacity needs and regulatory priorities</div><div class="MsoNormal">• Develop plans for allocating fiscal year 2010 resources</div><div class="MsoNormal">• Develop the FDA’s budget request for fiscal year 2011</div><div class="MsoNormal">• Plan implementation of new food safety legislation</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">And my favourite quote</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> "Monsanto should not have to vouch for the safety of biotech food," said Phil Angell, Monsanto's director of corporate communications. "Our interest is in selling as much of it as possible. Assuring its safety is the FDA's job."</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> Drone of Citizen Monsanto, Supreme Lobbyist at FDA</div><div class="MsoNormal"> New York Times Corporation, October 25, 1998</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Phil Angell and Greenie must have gone to the same school of thinking!</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Going to join my local Buddhist colony and practice my hummmmmmmmmmmmmm BUG!<span style="color: #1f497d;"> And find ONE US farmer selling non Monsanto soybeans....<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #1f497d;">You will know it’s time when you can catch a fly with chopsticks, Grasshopper!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #1f497d;">RIP David Carradine<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #1f497d;">We will miss you!<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
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didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-80373036900041535922010-03-25T01:52:00.004-04:002010-04-29T15:25:07.408-04:00A Moment of Clarity: US DEBT, CURRENCIES, COMMODITIES and INDICESRarely can One pundit utter this phrase of enlightenment but we think we have a pretty good sense of where the markets are heading in the NEXT FOUR weeks...<br />
<br />
US FEDERAL DEBT YIELDS <br />
Like most people we knew this day would come, maybe later in the year , but it was coming... It was not a question of if but when and today March 24th, 2010 the market started to balk at yet another massive treasury issue. The government's auction of $42 billion in 5-year notes went poorly, pressuring an already sagging Treasury market and driving yields higher and Thursday issue of the 7 year notes will show the same thing as today...<br />
So the first conclusion is if the 5yr NOTES is MOVING UP , the SEVEN YEAR won't be far behind ALL the WAY to the 30 year...<br />
The FED has announced the end of March for buying MBS... so in effect Quantitative easing is going to be seriously curtailed <br />
SO FIRST TAKE AWAY: FED TIGHTENS CREDIT AND US LONG RATES WILL MOVE BEFORE THE FED MOVES ON RAISING RATES<br />
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CURRENCIES<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ_LGuw20w1GUAJ9NTTLcSJLEJqiOObwwSK6NgmLAsF7hVnfCNQEUq3TRfnbLiwKCQy4wju0O7DwxJ93SZzwqcbCyvY2shryeboPCXjip5g4YtrjAhWh-StnTqrgN4YijBFKgRnJd8ap4/s1600/USD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ_LGuw20w1GUAJ9NTTLcSJLEJqiOObwwSK6NgmLAsF7hVnfCNQEUq3TRfnbLiwKCQy4wju0O7DwxJ93SZzwqcbCyvY2shryeboPCXjip5g4YtrjAhWh-StnTqrgN4YijBFKgRnJd8ap4/s320/USD.png" /></a></div><br />
↓EURO: We still believe that the Euro is going towards USD parity but first it will have to go through 1.20... We have seriously complained about the undue interest in Greece knowing too full well that this is the least of the European union's problems. Everybody will soon realize that no partner nation can leave the union and like all bad marriages, there are still of lot of noise, demonstrations etc. to come out of Portugal and the unemployed Spaniards... There will be at least another 12 months of pressure on the EURO<br />
↓YEN: Japanese traders will go for the carry trade chasing US raising rates, so the YEN WILL FALL VS THE USD in 2010 but EXPECT this in the JUNE to SEPTEMBER PERIOD<br />
↓CDN: We believe commodities are going to move sideways if not lower in the next two years so the Canadian dollar is going to retrace towards 90 cents...<br />
↓AUD & NZ: WE think tightening in China is going to put Chinese commodity buyers and these currencies will be under pressure vs the greenback...<br />
<br />
<br />
COMMODITIES<br />
↓PRECIOUS METALS With all these rates and currencies gyrations , we have become extremely BEARISH on ADDING TO GOLD POSITIONS HERE. We think that a rate rises in US RATES ON the LONGER END will have traders leave GOLD and ESPECIALLY SILVER to look for rising yields in carry trades. GOLD IS going to be below 950 in the next TWO years<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-tYTq4H9Cq2i0loPubaekEBEHf3X8cDhL51uaOD5ZN-Blys-wXU0edrP7YqwoVf3CKxiISSxWt6bHEMwW6PtTtMF5GojaRrj5ujwtl6QmP2c8u0YhU9jv_WHSWiq1CRbemCp-x42gzUI/s1600/gold.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-tYTq4H9Cq2i0loPubaekEBEHf3X8cDhL51uaOD5ZN-Blys-wXU0edrP7YqwoVf3CKxiISSxWt6bHEMwW6PtTtMF5GojaRrj5ujwtl6QmP2c8u0YhU9jv_WHSWiq1CRbemCp-x42gzUI/s320/gold.png" /></a></div><br />
↓METALS: We believe CHINA will be more interested in securing MINING rights over taking delivery. So you can expect some companies that fail to deliver their earnings forecast to be subject to takeovers...<br />
↔OIL and NG. We see Oil trading in a range of 68-82 for the next two years. NG at $4.00 is pretty much at the bottom range and the summer should see it rebound.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj80SbsjgyYQKXBVH8Flg4ix8fVdLUjZmrsTpYXYLqUWHQV7zQmMunfJloer0qzyOTnk_2_JsUUHk31crno-FbnsmesF2B8n9LHAOpsdmE1YLna7AuFdI9blklYg49giTxR5wVxObA6_ec/s1600/CRB.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj80SbsjgyYQKXBVH8Flg4ix8fVdLUjZmrsTpYXYLqUWHQV7zQmMunfJloer0qzyOTnk_2_JsUUHk31crno-FbnsmesF2B8n9LHAOpsdmE1YLna7AuFdI9blklYg49giTxR5wVxObA6_ec/s320/CRB.png" /></a></div><br />
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↑FOOD: We think that as a basket this is still the best place to invest.<br />
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INDICES<br />
↑DJIA will defy pundits and still has 100-250 points to the upside UNLESS FED moves rates 100 BPS (VERY unlikely)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
↓TSX: with some commodities about to seriously correct, AVOID<br />
↓NIKKEI: With Carry trades out of the yen and lousy export picture the Nikkei may not be your favorite market for now<br />
↓SHANGHAI: With the central bank tightening, this will a picker's market but the indices will retrace <br />
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<br />
In conclusion, From Oct 11 2007 when the S&P 500 hit 1576.09 to March 6th 2009 saw the S&P 500 low of 666. That was a 57.7% retracement from the 2007 highs. THE SECOND worse drop. By march 2010, helped with the largesse of Washington yet backed by the taxpaying public, the FED and its free money policies have largely concentrated powers into fewer hands. The market is now around 1167 and the party is pretty much over.<br />
From a rising tide to save a quasi bankrupt banking system, we now have to contend with FED tightening and many bets out there are about to face the reality that NOT ALL countries (or banks) will survive. The US is leading the way with banking reform and the next few weeks will give us a good indication on the NEW pricing of RISK Hold and wait won't work in this market and if you don't keep a tight lid on erosion the rest of the year will have you fighting the tape at every bump in the road!<br />
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Good trading to you!<br />
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DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-51344835491886379572010-03-02T13:18:00.006-05:002010-04-29T15:32:33.052-04:00Beware the Ides of March or a missive full of really bad analogiesActually the equity market are pretty much set to keep their gains! March hope springs eternal.<br />
Our answer is simple: Doubtful for a retreat over the next two months but <b style="color: red;">Mid May to End of June</b> should see the FED start to really try to reignin free money... Right now the perfect wave is allowing Dr. Bernanke to shine as a savior surfer and surf away in an idyllic setting. The fact that three board seats are still available at the FOMC must have something to do with it. It's 4:30PM and the sun is setting soon enough! Best be ready for a cold summer shower and some drinks!<br />
We are more sanguine about commodities, especially food and energy, in the equity markets at this juncture. There are so <b style="color: lime;"><span style="color: #38761d;">many bids on the US dollar</span> </b>at this moment, this pig with lipstick is going to be the prom queen at the June graduation.<br />
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CURRENCIES<br />
But like any commodity, when demand for US dollars surpasses supply, you are going to have dollar bulls saying all is well. Until the recent flood of new paper really hits the borrowers, it will be like an iceberg falling in the Jacuzzi. It always brings to mind the famous scene in the Titanic when Jack tries to stay on the doomed ship the longest time possible because he bloody well knows any time spent in the frigid waters of the North Atlantic will be the death of him and the Mrs. (please pronounce in a Scottish rogue for comedic effect). Ask Iceland bank shareholders if they have an opinion on the matter. So right now traders and old investors are moving to the top floor of this deck of wet cards using the US dollar as the quickest way to avoid a floundering pound and a Euro trading at a 10 month low. Is that wise? Gold in Euro terms always seem to us as the right move when pointed out by Dennis Gartman. <br />
<br />
So if you don't like the analogies of cold/hot showers, jacuzzis and Icebergs... bare with us we only have one more. In the world of international finance, the sharks are now circling the easier prey that can be easily isolated. Take for example the GBP. Start with some juicy gossip about tyrant PM Brown, add a dash of bad economic data and voila,,, le disaster du jour with a Cherry-o on top!<br />
The Euro is the most overplayed story with Greece playing the eternal insouciant profligate ingenue... a $40BB check from the rich German uncle should be forthcoming if enough mea culpas are proffered... ( sorry don't know the Greek translation to Mea Culpas).<br />
The Italians continue business as usual but our bets are still with Spain and its terrible economic situation. So the Euro will stabilize here but we believe on the next leg down it may hover near parity to the USD.<br />
The Europeans will quickly understand that if the Euro falters there will be no growth for quite some time and they will start to import inflation.<br />
In the US, the government continues to dole out projects and expenditures are out of control. The real economy is masked by Uncle Sam projects of dubious value. I We are not sure the Pentagon expenditures fit in as infrastructures projects. Rebuild America! right, with bombs, Humvee s, Aircraft carriers and drone planes? Did I ever mention the expression one-term President?<br />
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WHAT to DO <br />
We suggest you do a very strong Spring cleaning, push the outlook 5 years from now, wasn't owning Exxon, Intel, Petrobras and Nestle and other large well capitalized companies remains a much wiser choice that some NASDAQ darling with earnings "visibility" which is actually zigzagging pretty close to a precipice? Make sure all those stop losses are in there.<br />
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BUT PLEASE follow our advice and dump those US dollars for gold bars.!<br />
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THE REST OF THE YEAR ( for numerologists) <br />
This sure has the feel of 1987 all over again... Stratospheric P/Es, rising rates and an ever shrinking pot to ...<br />
In 1987, we sold everything in May, Took three months off in Greece ( of all places!), came back in September and hearing snickering remarks until that faithful day in October... The years ending in Os don't' do very well... need I remind you 1930 ( great depression), 1980 (Iran Crisis, NY default,,, etc.), 2000 Tech bubble burst aftermath, isn't 2010 just a repeat with the inconvenience of a bunch of technocrats hell bent on trying to keep alive a patient with no quality of life ( or job for that matter).<br />
<br />
BUT PLEASE follow our advice and dump those US dollars for gold bars.! ( repeated for serious effect)<br />
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Meantime I am buying dinner to anyone who can call the low on US treasuries... been waiting so long I have dust on my buy tickets... TBT and the likes!<br />
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Good trading to youdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-75510597146365254562010-01-27T11:08:00.004-05:002010-04-29T15:37:50.026-04:00State of the Union: Words of warning to the American Public<div class="commentSource">It is not the job of the Federal government to create jobs.<br />
<br />
History shows us that nations that prospered to the top of the economic pyramid were those that had more benefits from comparative advantage of production methods, strong savings ethics, fostering an environment where education, innovation, entrepreneurship backed by solid development of intellectual property were the order of the day. <br />
Right now the US economy has a monkey on its back where 20% of its economy is controlled by bankers when 7% would suffice PLENTY. Too many banks, too much capital tied to banks rather than flowing into the system of production and exports. The Federal reserve since the last nomination of Greenspan has perpetuated this travesty and exacerbates the problem with subsidized low rates and a conspiracy to protect Wall Street to the detriment of the public. <br />
Instead now you have a whinny, socialist propaganda appealing to an unqualified electorate benefiting from handouts. As the same time, the establishment ( Banks, Pentagon and entitlement programs) continue to be propped up by soaring deficits, unfathomable debt loads and the most expensive health care in the world. Class warfare is growing and iniquity in the American society is trending down for the middle class. The only undeniable number one position that the US can flaunt is its title of the most litigious nation in the world. <br />
WHEN is enough, enough? <br />
In the State of the Union address, President Obama should get the message out that the US government is not Santa Claus. That people and corporations have to take responsibility for their follies of years past. <br />
<br />
If I were to write that speech and most importantly not have to deliver it to a hostile crowd, this is what I would say<br />
After the preliminaries , I would engage the audience with this:<br />
<br />
"BUT WHAT IS REALLY THE STATE OF THE UNION?<br />
1)The US economy is on its last leg as the freest and largest consumer economy in the world. It is transitioning back to an exporter of often raw materials which do not need skilled workers.<br />
2) Congressional elections remain a sham. Nominations go the well connected and victories remain with the deepest pockets.<br />
3) The office of the president is pretty much useless vs. the power yielded by Congress and the Supreme court. So help me out here, what can I do to get re-elected?<br />
4) Things don't look very bright and the recovery for middle America is tedious at best.<br />
5) While it might make the people feel good to be courted by promises of change, listening to candidates battle out it every two years for two years, the office of the President is a Hollywood prop up piece. It's the PR department of the Pentagon. It shows off nice toys like Air Force One. It is a reactionary office dealing with threats and crises. Sometimes I get to float programs but always at the expense of the taxpayer<br />
6)The cabinet is usually made of very bright and accomplished people but their opinions and lasting legacies are few and usually very short lasting.<br />
7) Foreign policy initiatives with touring secretaries of State walking like Darth Vader traveling to trouble spots and UN booze bashes are OK and we have to continue healing wounds.<br />
<br />
<br />
WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO<br />
<br />
As an administration we want to start with a simple agenda:<br />
1) Promise of fair taxation<br />
2) Simplified tax code<br />
3) Programs to encourage savings<br />
4) Private investment initiatives<br />
5) A strong dollar policy to make debtors accountable<br />
6) Once we balance our books, we will propose legislation for health care reform"<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
This would do more than all this useless pork barrel deficit spending run by a bunch of clueless academics , economists and other charlatans.<br />
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LIKELY OUTCOME <br />
There was no recovery in late 2009. Just depleted inventories. Unemployment is going up this year to 10.5% and then up from there. From 2010 to 2014, the western world will be dealing with a depression and sovereign debt default.. 4 years of blaming the government, a lot of soul searching and then in 2015 a rebirth with outrageous inflation...Exporters' currencies will rise, importers will fall.<br />
Not a pretty outcome... thank you Mr. Greenspan for getting the world hooked on subsidized rates<br />
<br />
CONCLUSION <br />
Mr. American voter, you should have let your government know that Volcker policies would keep you safe. The Clinton administration and Congress' push of the repeal of the Glass Stegall act fights with the Bush 43's invasion of Iraq as the worst blunders of the American government since WWII.<br />
You continuously vote out of office politicians who come up with balanced budgets.<br />
Now it is very hard to go rehab and clean up your act!<br />
<br />
Good Night and god bless everyone who has to deal with the consequences of American policy. i.e. the American voter<br />
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Good trading to all!<br />
<br />
</div>didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-68680162769969914812010-01-22T15:16:00.004-05:002010-01-22T17:53:49.630-05:00Bernanke and other thoughtsSince WWII, it was the likes of Truman and Ike, the Kennedys with the Pentagon that ran the order of things and kept the country "safe" from the red menace.With the fall of the wall, Reaganomics were hailed as liberation and deregulation created its raison d'être. Clinton was the beneficiary of feel good years and money plowed into entitlements and the money agencies<br />
The problems started when the NAZ bubble busted and the phlegmaticChairman Greenspan pontificating that cheap money combined with a deregulated bigger is better banking model could and would solve all ills. What followed was Wall Street greed at its worst... Another talker he was that Greenspan. Instead of Volkerizing the players, he chastised wiht empty words while relying on abnormally low rates. Ho, what the great guru he was. Creating a real estate bubble to eclipse all bubbles prior to it and leaving his successor to a bubble to supersede our wildest expectations. I will never forget Greenspan visiting the senate fiance committe hearings. He would show poise. He would reason and blab his musings to Congressmen more interested in their TV face time than meaningful queries. Using a muddled discourse pretty lean on sound bites if it weren't the exception of "Market exuberance", the Chairman spend more time explaining the actions rather than restraining the new leverage addicts.A FED chairman should be like a plumber. FIRST, he fixes the flood and then he tells who to prevent the next one. <br />
So after the wheels came off in 2008, with a lot of finger pointing, useless commissions, printing money and a President who talks CHANGE but can`t change a tire without a 12,000 page bill , the question begs: who WILL take up the baton? the Leftists? Give me a break! I doubt Obama's Democrats will get a second term short of an atomic bomb exploding in Texas Stadium. 10% unemployment gives a lot of people time to hold other people accountable for their own lack of political activism. <br />
<br />
WHAT THE FUTURE PROMISES<br />
<br />
Push your timeline of future events towards 2012, and ask:<br />
- "WHAT US political agenda will carry the day?"<br />
If anything, we think SMALLER government will be the campaign slogan after vilified bankers will have been emasculated by legislation that comes BACK 25 years too late. Negative campaigns don't work...<br />
<br />
- " WHO can run on a ticket of smaller government and show a portfolio of lean management?<br />
That's the candidate the republicans will push <br />
<br />
- " WHEN?"<br />
With the Supreme court lifting campaign contribution limits, this is going to be great times for Media assuming they are reaching a wired world... Look for ads to pop on your smart phone soon enough. Candidates will come through in the fall of 2010 to build on this predicted jobless recovery...<br />
<br />
-"HOW do you make money?"<br />
Follow the money ... the reason why the US dollar is rallying against the Euro and even fiercer socialist rhetoric is in part due to SMART people having already priced in an end to Iraq involvement and a leaner form of government. What are Hutchinson, Power Corp, Buffett or Carlos Slim buying... sure wasn't real estate in 2006... but brand names , distribution, railways (i.e. coal), Newspapers.<br />
Just like the market always think 5 months ahead, all the billionaires I read about have 5-7 years horizons for their plans in the form of buying and selling assets ... that is what killed GE's shareholders... lack of focus on thinking on what would happen in 2012 back in 2006. Instead they hope to grow the business, to increase the dividend and other nonsense...... the older generation would have bailed on the finance arm way before it took over the shop... meantime real estate looks like the play in 2012!<br />
THE TRICKY PART: American Industry must now embark on a "peace" dividend and spend it on infrastructure and technology but they are held back by, of all things. the health care bill was meant to fix the costs of labor along a viable rate not an exponential curve. CEOs might be scratching their heads on trying to grow their top line revenue for the next shareholders meeting but if they really were any good at their jobs they would TRY to fix health care<br />
Why trust the US as a place of business when health care costs and litigation derail business decisions in favor of China, Brazil? or anywhere for that matter? Any businessman worth his stock options will tell you: " not a good idea to go into a 5 year program where government rhetoric can impede rather than help minimize let alone quantify risk.<br />
I believe it is a mistake on the part of the Republicans to partisan the debate and block health care reform... the sooner it passes the beter the dividend by the time they come to power in 2012. By 2015 you will read biographies where Republican congressional leaders will look back at 2009 and say THAT was the time to pass legislation. Now money talks in Washington not intelligent debate.<br />
<br />
In the meantime, next week the ever frequent US Treasuries notes auction is coming to gauge the market appetite. Let's hope the Wall Street fat cats don't use the opportunity to show their displeasure with the Obama tactics to feed them to popular anger...<br />
<br />
Now you may be asking yourselves , been reading this rant for 5 minutes, where is Bernanke in all of this? He 's the desert my friends! With a stalling reappointment vote <br />
delayed in Congress, he may become the poor sacrificial goat to appease all the disgruntled. Quite unlikely for TIME's man of the year but HOW much fun it is to think of all the possible candidates... A good and true disciple of von Mises would be too much to ask for but I'd rather fall asleep on the thought of an appointment of an Austrian school economist rather than those awful choices rampant these days!<br />
<br />
<br />
Enjoy your weekend and hope you have some cash stashed aside ... you might need it sooner than you think!didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-56002511132707570262010-01-07T11:32:00.002-05:002010-01-08T13:01:51.136-05:00Inflation...We were warned. Printing money is a short term solution. Bernanke and Geithner were the men of the hour if not the year in 2009 but like all heroes, time to let real fixers come in and do the dirty work.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYtJ4M1fJTj2wuGZGvBElQIVHx0-BlbVNTktQeXQjrQcN6pXUYRkOtI-hx8AKw4aKMPAnsYoFO3iB9qLASN10umQDSe-ImchEoithpqvAzxktwhT1NNRj7-Bc0h9xrezicckNNMvDFZWI/s1600-h/New+Picture.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYtJ4M1fJTj2wuGZGvBElQIVHx0-BlbVNTktQeXQjrQcN6pXUYRkOtI-hx8AKw4aKMPAnsYoFO3iB9qLASN10umQDSe-ImchEoithpqvAzxktwhT1NNRj7-Bc0h9xrezicckNNMvDFZWI/s320/New+Picture.bmp" /></a><br />
</div>We've said it many times, the US economy is broken. A political class that is easily if not cheaply bought to the detriment of the average Joe cannot expect to fix itself. 2 senators are leaving the scenes but many other guns for hire are up to squandering fiat currency.<br />
<br />
It is a shame that Wall Street continues to be bailed out when the problem will just continue to grow in proportion to the accumulated debts of the USA.<br />
<div class="indent">The Fed is buying $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued by housing-finance companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and federal agency Ginnie Mae. The central bank began the program in January 2009.<br />
</div><div class="indent">The central bank separately purchased $300 billion of Treasury securities from March through September 2009 and is buying, through March, $175 billion of corporate debt issued by government-backed Fannie and Freddie and the government- chartered Federal Home Loan Banks.<br />
</div><br />
Now with a $14 TB debt load, aging baby boomers sucking out the life of public healthcare and 15MM people out of jobs, the printing presses are furiously running out of ink.<br />
2-10 yr spread on Treasuries is at its widest point in 20 years showing that the Fed has drawn a line in the sand and who ever crosses it is betting against the Fed. Usually not a good move but this time, is it Different?<br />
<br />
In the last month, we can sense that the Treasury department 's alarms bells are going off.<br />
<br />
Around the World China, Vietnam, Australia have started to raise rates to keep their customers happy, why are the Americans late to the game?<br />
<br />
This does not bode well for the US dollar as the powers that be are not inclined to protect the dollar.<br />
<br />
Continue to hold gold, buy some more gold if not hoard the sucker!<br />
<br />
Until Long term rates cover inflation, there is no better asset to hold.<br />
<br />
Good trading to you!<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-6131469681226336592009-11-27T12:15:00.001-05:002009-11-27T12:21:23.219-05:00Black Swan on Black Friday?Just like a seasoned fighter is better at taking hits than the undefeated newbie, this market can shrug pretty much anything at this point, as long as it is one drop at a time. <br />
It is interesting that the Dubai debt extension comes on American Thanksgiving and a half day trading on Black Friday. Asia over reacts while in Europe cooler heads prevail. In the US, tryptophan releases and black Friday shopping madness has a calming effect.<br />
<br />
In Canada, even rumors of RBC exposure to Dubai is not preventing the markets from holding its own and Canadian markets are stabilizing after a sell-off yesterday.<br />
<br />
I wouldn't want to be an HSBC investor with $17BB in Dubai paper though. So don't expect the equities markets to do much but commodities and currencies will be the menu du jour for the next 3-4 months. If the region was rife with an irresponsible dumb jump in real estate supply, there must also have been scores lured into commodity leverage. Margin calls will be abundant next week and expect the flood gates to open up again depressing an over extended market. OIL and COPPER are probably going to have the biggest whiplash where GOLD will retreat as the flight to dollar counter balances. For Europeans and Canadians converting their currency into gold sound like a good move as world debt has increased 45% since 2007. That paper is only backed by willingness of taxpayers.IF the later revolt, CDWs will again be the talk of the day. Now let's move to much calmer waters<br />
<br />
Black Friday is the only time of the year when we opine on US retail sales outlook. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Let's start with Boy toys <br />
Any electronic retailer can get 1000 people to line up outside theirs stores as long as it can sell products at no margin or even at a loss... Is HP really supplying these stores with $199 laptops? How do you pay overhead with those kinds of margins. Everybody knows and expect comparables over 2008 to be easy, What are they over 2007? What is the inventory turnover? Has is doubled or tripled?What kind of net margins are we looking at? What kind of P/E multiples are there out there. What is the distribution over the industry, Is it a Bell Curve or a scatter chart? If retailers now have a better handle on inventory, what does that do for factory workers still laid off. What does it do for mall space?<br />
<br />
High End Luxury<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs7FDboSI6Xgx4x_eXL76Oepjxki5vdBSoYuwE8rMM7fq3RDNGgYJSxgVt42t3WZ0RIhCcYqv5PqcjXGRNA6p2Co2TwY1Lvh7F4pIpmy0vj2VfBYA_HxUhXoPj-z9taiSfZNIJhu6e03w/s1600/Lvmh.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs7FDboSI6Xgx4x_eXL76Oepjxki5vdBSoYuwE8rMM7fq3RDNGgYJSxgVt42t3WZ0RIhCcYqv5PqcjXGRNA6p2Co2TwY1Lvh7F4pIpmy0vj2VfBYA_HxUhXoPj-z9taiSfZNIJhu6e03w/s320/Lvmh.gif" /></a><br />
</div>What is happening at Saks and Bergdorf? Claims on no discounts are being branded about... Let's see LVMH... that chart must be telling ... losing money over the last 10 years ... a lost decade and those damn bags are not getting cheaper!<br />
<br />
Mass Merchandisers<br />
As Wal-Mart, Costco and Home Depot have changed their merchandise to much more practical items, It was more interesting to watch WHAT people bought rather than HOW MUCH. We expect these companies to have +10% y/y numbers. Again very easier to deliver<br />
<br />
Specialty retail<br />
When the pie gets smaller, appetite moves out of indices and into the 2-3 names that make or break. Big short interest battles estimate beaters and overall lots of wounded investors leave the market and shrink the pie. Watch J Crew, Gap etc...<br />
<br />
High end food vs Family fare<br />
The one surprising sector is how different this recession/depression has affected dining out. Usually savvy MMs usually know for being ahead of the crowd, moved out of momentum trendy names and vow for the family fare names down market. Unfortunately they just got pummeled as this time it was "different".<br />
This sector is a good indication that dining out has affected MANY Americans and is probably the best sign that things are about to get worse.<br />
<br />
With 10.2% Unemployment, the US consumer is not here yet and any comparison with December 2003<br />
is as moronic as need be. In 2003 people were piling up into real estate after the remaining debacle of Dot com era was still being felt. This time people have no nest egg, the real estate market is still down with over 10MM mortgages upside down and the elephant in the room is still commercial real estate.<br />
<br />
In conclusion the US consumer needs cheap thrills. Movie tickets, Confectionery goods cloth shopping at Wal-Mart or TJ max sounds like the perfect safe ticket.<br />
<br />
<br />
On US Government and Elected officials <br />
All the talking heads in the US government predict and shout a recovery is at hand in Q1 of 2010 and employment recovery to lag behind it with numbers picking up in Q2.<br />
In election terms November 2010 is so close Republicans are counting the days. As Naysayers and rabid defenders of special interest groups, they need to last only 343 odd days to get their day... As the Democrats are now realizing, a majority means very little when the party is a hodge podge of Non-Republicans rather than a common voting block. Can any meaningful Obama legislation be passed wiht that kind of a group... doubtful...<br />
<br />
Again what the US needs is an omnipotent ruler with the power to erase $15TB of debt. A Constitutional law professor isn't about to cross the Rubicon and really clean house. Too bad!<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcSEIQgbIYQz0jmmYyLD8G-u2xhnpGfSWStFIBXw7UAPa9COYGctmpMWKmI_HK9nFihx_N6SAgyzpmpMoqDS6Rmjm9ko2MTZxNc4PmVezjQI7UucyHA9VFKdcv3pyc6ShEShxNG4MY2aw/s1600/Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcSEIQgbIYQz0jmmYyLD8G-u2xhnpGfSWStFIBXw7UAPa9COYGctmpMWKmI_HK9nFihx_N6SAgyzpmpMoqDS6Rmjm9ko2MTZxNc4PmVezjQI7UucyHA9VFKdcv3pyc6ShEShxNG4MY2aw/s320/Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<br />
In the meantime I am still happy to short hard commodities and vent my frustration around the cupidity surrounding the trading of carbon credits, the whole idiocy of cap and trade and the upcoming folly behind the Copenhagen summit. With 17% reduction in emission targets over 10 years, you should take that trip to the Biminis and Samoa as they will long been the new Atlantises before the next decade is out... That's for another story!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Happy trading to you! didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-55021853963341221232009-10-21T07:10:00.002-04:002009-10-21T08:11:56.265-04:00PPI and the dreaded D word or why things ARE NOT GOOD!There you have it folks!<br />
<br />
<pre>"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in September, seasonally
adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This
decrease followed a 1.7-percent rise in August and a 0.9-percent decline in July. In September, at
the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved
up 0.2 percent and the crude goods index fell 2.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, from
September 2008 to September 2009, prices for finished goods fell 4.8 percent, the tenth
consecutive month of year-over-year declines"</pre><br />
PPI came in and the market reacted vigorously. Bovespa retracted 2.5% and the loonie lost 2 cents.<br />
The USD is a reserve currency and for all the misguided efforts on Capitol Hill to keep Wall Street insulated from the vagaries of earning an honest living, the political mood is A changin'! NOT IN MY LIFETIME!<br />
<br />
Last night, we watched PBS's Frontline's episode called "The warning" which recounts the efforts of Brooksley Born, Chair of CFTC 1996-1999 to have OTC derivatives come under the CFTC ( Commodity Futures Trading Commission). She was debunked on the hill in committee after committee and Robert Rubin , Larry Summers and Alan Greenspan derided her as a fool who could bring down markets if derivatives were ever regulated. You could see who drafted Congressman and Senators queries to Mrs. Born... right out of the offices of the bank lobby groups in Washington. THERE ARE FIVE BANK LOBBYISTS FOR EVERY SITTING MEMBER OF CONGRESS.<br />
Amazingly enough, there is STILL NO LEGISLATION out there to regulate 573 TRILLION DOLLARS of derivative bets made by people who can only write checks to themselves but never meet their own obligations if another market shock came our way. That shock is coming. You may be inclined to buy peace of mind with insurance, hard assets like gold or hold on to different currencies but make no mistake, Bankers around the world have corrupted elected bodies and they will continue to prevent any legislation to limit their pay or their leverage trading activities. Citi below $4.50 , GE below $17 while GS and MS at record highs show that their power grab has succeeded and record bonuses courtesy of the American public will continue.<br />
<br />
This brings us to our talk on deflation. Q3 earning results show that large businesses lost ground on topline revenue but cleaned the fat on the bottom line. Great! mass firings brings in less consummers, higher unemployment and sales over 2 years comparisons are dismal. Wall street plays games by comparing over last year, small consolation. "Employment is a lagging indicator" they say... All I remember is that inventory build-up was a sign of optimism... WHO has inventory build-up?<br />
<br />
Deflation means that prices going forward are cheaper than before... Case in point: In Canada MERCEDES-BENZ sells its flagship series E 2010 models at a BASE price $10,000 less than LAST year... that's even before subsidized lease rates and other incentives...<br />
<br />
Expect more of the same.<br />
<br />
Until the Fed raises the price of money, gets out the shorts out of the USD and the US government learns to manage risk takers with a baton, expect access to credit for your average Joe to go down until Q3 2010 and that the S&P has hit a wall at 1100 and will have to retrace its meteoric rise to deal with the reality that the money out there is in the wrong hands! We think a retracement 5-10% is healthy at this point...<br />
<br />
In the meantime lifting the veil on Dark pools, front running and a couple of WASPY rogue traders in jail sounds good for morale! <br />
<br />
<br />
Good trading to You<br />
<br />
<br />
didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-64301984132654089252009-10-02T07:46:00.008-04:002009-10-02T21:09:52.637-04:00Alone in OUR OWN THOUGHTSIt's been a wonderful September and October is off to a roaring start.<br />
Our December 1100 Puts were up $17 yesterday.<br />
Time for an update.<br />
While we can always make excuses for awful stock purchases, using the madness of crowds and trends to come up with archaic and obsolete economic mumbojumbo is NOT an acceptable excuse!<br />
<br />
So instead of repeating over and over again the way to look at the US market, please read on. If you can't agree with ALL of the following axioms, best you go somewhere else because you will NEVER understand why we are beating all the market indices since March 2007.<br />
<br />
First have a look at the unemployment ranks. Fierce cost cutting and massive layoffs have given temporary reprieve to companies but what happens when the consumer disappears! Welcome to Q4 , Reality sets in! <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9U_5ALhGjehFjCvKEA6GRDmxQ4eheW036ZJvonpy6mPg2O7ODE_2eavXuBk4wMXP3Qj5kSw2di_gSQgvSSefFF05n2xHFjM25t4HtRep6qKoC4BuhtCPIUTJQrJWeUMsWcRDTy2m-nas/s1600-h/stock_insured_chart.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9U_5ALhGjehFjCvKEA6GRDmxQ4eheW036ZJvonpy6mPg2O7ODE_2eavXuBk4wMXP3Qj5kSw2di_gSQgvSSefFF05n2xHFjM25t4HtRep6qKoC4BuhtCPIUTJQrJWeUMsWcRDTy2m-nas/s320/stock_insured_chart.PNG" /></a><br />
</div><br />
<br />
This is the AXIOMS about 2009 AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS:<br />
<br />
1) CHEAP RATES DO NOT BENEFIT CONSUMERS WHO DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CREDIT<br />
2) CHEAP RATES DO NOT ALLOW RICH PEOPLE TO EARN MONEY ON CAPITAL AND GO OUT AND SPEND. iNSTEAD THEY GO PLAY AT THE NYSE AND NASDAQ CASINO TABLES<br />
3) US TREASURY DEPARTMENT SUPPORTING LOW YIELDS ON ITS OWN PAPER CREATES DEFLATION<br />
4) HUGE BUDGET DEFICITS MAKES THE US AN UNENVIABLE PLACE TO SET UP BUSINESSES<br />
5) GOVERNMENTS NEVER SPEND MONEY MORE WISELY THAN PRIVATE ENTERPRISE<br />
6) THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IS TO MAKE IT FAIR FOR ALL CITIZENS<br />
7) IF POLITICIANS CAN BE BOUGHT THROUGH ANY FORM OF CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS, YOU HAVE A CORRUPT GOVERNMENT. NOTHING WILL CHANGE. THE BIGGEST DONORS GET TO SET THE AGENDA AND DEFRAUD THE PEOPLE ALL OF THE TIME.<br />
8) WRITING LEGISLATION TO PREVENT A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR'S PROBLEMS IS BY NO MEANS AN EFFECTIVE TOOL TO PREVENT THE NEXT CRISIS.<br />
9) PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS A BIG GUN POINTED OUTSIDE THE US BORDERS WHEN IT SHOULD BE POINTED TO ALL PEOPLE ENTERING THE CAPITOL AND WORKING THE HALLS<br />
10) IN 2009, A US PRESIDENT IS NOTHING BUT A PESKY LOUD MOUTH WITH A WET NOODLE. THE ONLY VARIABLE IS VOCABULARY AND INTELLIGENCE. ATTRIBUTES THAT UNFORTUNATELY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY USEFUL IN CHANGING WASHINGTON'S WAYS<br />
11) TIME TO BRING BACK A STEALTH PRESIDENT WITH A TAZER<br />
<br />
<br />
Buy em' S&P puts 666!<br />
<br />
Good trading<br />
<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-59284400214885617952009-09-15T14:24:00.000-04:002009-09-15T14:24:49.681-04:00E-Trade reports record brokerage accounts for 3Q"The end is near my friends.<br />
Greed makes market Frothy. <br />
With the Yankee dollar down 35% in less than two years, record deficits, demagoguery rampant in the media and to top it all, a furry of speculators chasing the illusive buck.<br />
How many laidoff works are opening these accounts at discount brokerages?<br />
What is their average net worth profile?<br />
Are they using saved up or severance money to speculate?<br />
With 7MM newly unemployed Americans, Wall Street has the dubious disctintion of having laid off only 8% of its work force. The latter remains unscathed and the concentration of power nearly tripling to the whim of the Fed and the Treasury department.<br />
In this electronic age, we now have Click power and the stock market has become the latest casino. You don't have to tip anyone, go into security lines to get to Vegas and you can trade from the comfort of your skeevies.<br />
The economic numbers do not support such idiotic speculation and at this rate of Government Propaganda, President Obama is going to have to move into Air Force One to make it to his next motivational speech on time.<br />
STRATEGY<br />
Sold all US banks, kept MSFT and INTC<br />
Best to buy gold and have it delivered to your safety deposit box...<br />
We might not trade in the same attire but we are starting to bet against this with December S&P puts (20% done) up to a full 100% position by October 14th<br />
<br />
Dollar parity coming soon!didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-52129073053687529952009-09-01T11:53:00.001-04:002009-09-01T11:58:29.836-04:00Not betting against the Fed in September... S&P 1150 in reachSeptember prior to Labor day. The month of Nostalgia.<br />
<br />
The beaches of the French and Italian Rivieras have emptied. The crews of the Mega Yachts can relax because their owners have returned to their business headquarters. Mothers have prepared their kids for school and a slew of summer data is coming out.<br />
<br />
We had predicted that inventories would be run bare back from Q4 2008 and that at some point in 2009 there would be a rally based on a "replenishment quarter". It's easier to get a banker to extend credit when orders are piling up rather than have them finance shaky receivables...<br />
This is happening more or less on schedule.<br />
<b>VALUATION </b><br />
The problem is as we look into 2010, we are convinced that the "economic engine" is going to run at a discount to 2007 numbers. Some industries and retailers will have to contend with the credit crunch or should we call it "normal credit lines return to market" .<br />
Down the line it will create valuation issues. Should you pay the SAME dollar for a stock that produces LESS top line revenue/ Profit?<br />
Right now 93% of S&P 500 companies (SPX) are running over their 50 day moving average. Isn't that pure speculation? <br />
So if the SPX is relatively safe, the really BIG worry is in the private cos and mom and pops store which will take the brunt of the credit crunch. Those stories will be hard felt in many rural communities fall but they rarely make it in the press or the blogs.<br />
<b>TIMING</b><br />
<br />
Coming back to listed equities, be mindful that other skeptical Money Managers have stayed partially on the sidelines ( high cash component) and that their jobs are on the line if they don't get in to secure a bonus. We think September will see great institutional speculation based on fear rather than on exuberant retail demand. Once those Money managers secure their benchmark bonuses, they will unload. There fore expect higher volatility as well as higher volumes as fall progresses.<br />
The underlying rationale for an October-Mid November correction then makes sense.<br />
While there continues to be a witch hunt against short sellers, they should prevail when sanity returns.<br />
<br />
In the meantime with Citi above $5, Ford below $8, Oil between $65-$73, Gold above $950, UST 10yr at 3.38%, Bernanke and Geithner seems to hold the markets for an upside September. <br />
In October we can talk deficits , national debt and see if investors are ready to run for the exits...<br />
<br />
Good trading to you<br />
<br />
DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-61871025203201472812009-08-27T10:16:00.005-04:002009-08-28T11:37:07.493-04:00the summer of IllusionWith a summer spent on trying to live on the March lows "miracle", reality is sinking in that a much larger credit crunch is looming.<br />
By year's end many laid-off Americans will lose their benefits. <br />
Cash for clunkers program should be renamed Clunkers print cash (to stave off depression for another quarter...)<br />
Yet on the UNemployment range, the four-week average of claims, which smooths out fluctuations, fell by 4,750 to 566,250 last week. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZi0inmvdXzIMtu9o1TR4yR9QzL3hREfCnjAVVngcX114mqXCJAI16Jv9qxtatRDfqi86S50rtlzK6LY8M4Y7fMZAzvVxYEV0IFabQcYDpGPyL2EuymqmGbIbWtLBAxdW5eST-p37iFNg/s1600-h/Chinese+steel+prices.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZi0inmvdXzIMtu9o1TR4yR9QzL3hREfCnjAVVngcX114mqXCJAI16Jv9qxtatRDfqi86S50rtlzK6LY8M4Y7fMZAzvVxYEV0IFabQcYDpGPyL2EuymqmGbIbWtLBAxdW5eST-p37iFNg/s320/Chinese+steel+prices.bmp" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Chinese Steel Spot price </div>Considering the amount of stimuli offered by the Fed, it shows that government needs to keep pumping.<br />
That in itself shows that commodities are "toppy" and that the energy complex is about to unravel. <br />
We sold our remaining XIU (TSE) the S&P 60. We took profits on Sunopta AND GE. Still riding Citi to unload between $5-6<br />
Contrary to most we think the US dollar will maintain vs the Loonie so we are keeping a hefty US cash component while hedging with a gold bullion fund CEF.A <br />
News out of Europe (Germany) is showing that GVMTs are stepping to provide credit where private banks are falling to do their jobs. <br />
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6095203/German-state-to-lend-directly-as-second-credit-crunch-looms.html<br />
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We will be buying 1/3 initial Puts on BMO as we can't really understand why their loan-loss provisions are so much lower than their competitors... We doubt they are an island unto themselves...<br />
Meantime enjoy the last few days of relative peace as Q4 will be the show me quarter and no amount of "slow recovery" gibberish spin can damper lofty expectations already priced into the stratospheric valuations of Chinese and north American equities <br />
CAVEAT EMPTOR<br />
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Good trading to you!<br />
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DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-75121389629568908282009-07-15T11:40:00.003-04:002009-08-27T11:21:06.417-04:00Short Squeeze daySome of our outstanding losers, Citigroup, is coming back to life. Amazingly enough. DJIA is up 2.28% , NAZ is up 2.74%!<br />
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Amazing considering latest statistics coming out of japan:<br />
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In Japan it was reported that "."..wholesale prices fell a record 6.6 percent in the year to June, as the world's No.2 economy slides deeper into deflation"<br />
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If deflation is making markets go up, then productivity increases can`t be far behind. Whoever has a job will have to spend their cash for the rest of the unemployed (yeah right)...<br />
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Oh well enjoy it while it lasts!didcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-739262109400026348.post-50782389434868050772009-07-13T09:33:00.004-04:002009-08-27T11:22:26.151-04:00You know you are in trouble when....Good morning to all on this Monday July 13th 2009!<br />
This week is banking releases for the big boys<br />
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Today two observations:<br />
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A)Meredith Whitney<br />
The lady was on CNBC earlier this morning and probably the talk of the day as she raised her estimates on GS which are already 30% over street consensus. The stock hit a low of $50 now trading over $146. A bit late there on the call Mam!<br />
Whitney also said that net tangible at BAC gave a value to the stock over $12. Making it one of the cheaper big banks out there. Yup owning a portfolio in California is really a great idea this week... NOT!<br />
She also mentioned that Citi was a dead duck with the dilution having killed any chance of a rebound!<br />
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B)Paul Volcker<br />
The only man in the BAM administration who can bring real reform and change is nowhere to be seen these days. This is truly a bad omen. If you let technocrats like Geithner and Bernanke to skip stones from one crisis to the next,we are in for a bigger fall! Instead the admin is bent on serving rhetoric of more legislation to plug holes in a system that does not work and only delay the inevitable. <br />
We cannot understand why Health care reform is being pushed down the throats of legislators when the finances of the country are in such disarray. Sound to us like buying a very expensive engine when you can't afford to fill up the tank!<br />
We strongly hope that Mr. Volcker doesn't give up and is able to convince enough idealists that NOW is the BEST time to fix the system while there is still goodwill behind the US dollar ( or is that ill will behind the Euro?)<br />
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You know when you are in trouble when analysts are bullish on stocks that have tripled off their lows and reformers are pushed aside in favor of populist rhetoric.<br />
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We are still short S&P as we expect earnings to dip 15% across the board<br />
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Good trading to you<br />
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DCWdidcrywolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199979719768084902noreply@blogger.com0